Issue Date: Tuesday, June 14th, 2022
Issue Time: 10:45 AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

This morning, a few light showers were falling across portions of northern Colorado in association with an approaching shortwave trough, as notated by the “X” in the water vapor image below, before beginning to dissipate later this morning. As this trough continues to shift eastward, a surface low pressure circulation is forecast to develop in east-central Colorado. In association with the lift from the shortwave trough and forecasted weak instability, this surface low should provide additional convergence to help trigger a few rounds of isolated light showers across the Northeastern Plains this afternoon. A few of these showers may persist into the overnight hours. However, due to forecasted low rain rates, NO flooding is expected today.

Moisture has increased statewide as compared to yesterday, as observed by Grand Junction’s PW of 0.57 inches and Denver’s PW of 0.55 inches this morning. However, cooler temperatures are forecast and the upper jet is expected to mix moisture out further west. As a result, primarily dry conditions and gusty winds are forecast for the western and southern portions of the state today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge & Southeast Plains:

Light rain showers were falling this morning across the Northern and Central Mountains, as well as portions of the Front Range. Isolated showers are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening across the Northeast Plains. There is a possibility for storms to persist into the overnight hours, but at this time it appears the heavier rainfall should remain east where dew points are forecast to be higher and dynamics stronger. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.50 inches are possible with storms that develop today, so flooding is NOT expected.

The Flood Advisory is still in effect for the Colorado River near the entrance of RMNP to the Grand Lake through tomorrow. Levels have begun to drop this morning, but they still remain in Action stage. Low-lying areas, including trails in and around Tonahutu Creek near Grand Lake, may experience minor flooding issues.

Primetime: 3PM to 1AM

Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southeast Mountains & Raton Ridge:

This morning, smoke from Arizona fires continues to advect over the region with dry southwest flow aloft. Cooler temperatures behind the passing shortwave are forecast today as compared to yesterday. Due to strong winds likely mixing down to the surface and scouring out remaining moisture, conditions are expected to remain dry. These stronger winds and lower humidity values are expected to yield critical fire weather once more over these forecast zones, thus warranting the issuance of another large Red Flag Warning today. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest critical fire weather details.

Issue Date: Monday, June 13th, 2022
Issue Time: 9:45AM MDT 

— Flooding is NOT expected today

A change to the weather pattern is on the way, but not before another hot and windy day as Colorado remains under the influence of the ridge and an incoming jet. Dry southwest flow has helped to drop PW values at Denver and Grand Junction to around 0.25 inches this morning, and this dryness can be witnessed by the lack of cloud cover over the state. There’s a bit of moisture over the southeast corner of the state marked in green in the water vapor imagery below, but this is expected to mix out eastward as the trough pushes in from the west. Accompanying the trough is a strong jet, so windy conditions are forecast again over western Colorado. More on the associated critical fire conditions below.

While the majority of the state will lack the ingredients for afternoon rainfall, an incoming cold front should provide some moisture and lift to the northwest corner of the state by mid-afternoon for some showers and weak thunderstorms. Due to the dry boundary layer, it may take a bit for rainfall to reach the surface with plenty of virga forecast for the lower elevations. Over the higher terrains and hills, rainfall should be easier to accumulate, although only moderate rain rates are anticipated. Thus, there will be NO flood threat issued. Lighter showers will likely continue overnight across the Northern Mountains and northern Front Range. As the cold front dips south across eastern Colorado tonight, it could produce some windy conditions but it should remain dry.

Windy and dry conditions are forecast to continue over western Colorado, south-central Colorado and the Southeast Mountains as the jet with the next incoming trough move eastward. A large portion of these forecast areas have been placed under a Red Flag Warning from 10AM this morning to 11PM this evening, so use caution with any activity that could cause a spark.

The Colorado River continues to run high upstream of Grand Lake, and a Flood Advisory is in effect through Wednesday morning. The gauge was measured at of 7.9 feet this morning with 8 feet marking the Minor flooding height. Low-lying area and meadow flooding are possible from the entrance of RMNP down to Grand Lake and along the lower stretches of Tonahutu Creek (NE side of Grand Lake).

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Raton Ridge, Northeast Plains & Southeast Plains:

Windy conditions are forecast for the Northwest Slope and portions of the Northern Mountains today. It will be dry and hot to begin the day, but a cold front will help to generate cooler temperatures, showers and weak thunderstorms over the northwest corner of the state by mid-afternoon. Dry lightning and brief outflow winds will be the main threats from the storms with isolated storm totals up to 0.80 inches possible over higher terrains. Showers will likely continue over the Northern Mountains and spill into the northern Front Range overnight. A couple rounds of rainfall may produce localized totals up to 0.70 inches in the mountain zones by morning. Flooding is NOT expected. As the cold front drops through eastern Colorado tonight, it may produce some strong gusts, which will be most likely to occur over the Northeast Plains and northern Urban Corridor. I think everyone is looking forward to a cooler start to the day tomorrow.

Primetime: 1PM to Ongoing

Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southwest Slope & Grand Valley:

Hot and dry today with several Red Flag Warnings and high Wind Warnings issued. Blowing dust and critical fire conditions are forecast from 10AM to 11PM this evening, so use caution with any activity that could generate a spark. More information about the warnings can be found from your local NWS office. Afternoon high temperatures should be slightly cooler but still hot with 90Fs forecast across the lower elevations. Light rainfall will be possible over the northern Central Mountains near the Continental Divide early tomorrow morning, but with totals remaining under 0.10 inches, flooding is NOT forecast.

Issue Date: Sunday, June 12^th, 2022
Issue Time: 9:05AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

An upper-level ridge, centered over TX, will continue to hold its grip over CO through Sunday as shown in the visible satellite image below. Although the ridge has weakened a bit over the past 24 hours, afternoon high temperatures will continue to run well above normal to even near-record territory.

This morning’s PW at Denver was 0.63 inches, steady from yesterday, while Grand Junction’s value of 0.51 inches increased a bit. Boundary layer moisture continued to be impressive over the Northeast and Southeast Plains with dewpoint temperatures near 60F. PW is expected to drop over western and central CO as dry air mixes into the large boundary layer from above. PW is expected to rise over far eastern CO. A mid-level disturbance was noted over southwest Colorado today, currently manifested mainly as a cloud deck. This disturbance is expected to support isolated to scattered storms over the northeast quadrant of the state. Storm motion will increase from 20-25 mph early in the afternoon to 30mph+ by late afternoon, so rainfall will be limited in any given location. Nonetheless, brief heavy downpours are expected as storms grow into a larger complex on their way from the Palmer Ridge towards the KS/NE borders. However, aside from nuisance street ponding, flooding is NOT expected today. Storms are expected to become severe as they approach far eastern Colorado, with the primary threat being large hail and damaging winds.

As discussed in yesterday’s FTB, snowmelt continues in full gear over the Northern Mountains today, with warm nighttime temperatures supporting melting 24 hours a day (typically melting pauses at night as temperatures approach freezing over the higher terrain). The Colorado River is running high upstream of Grand Lake, and minor flooding may occur over the next 24-48 hours as the majority of the snow is expected by melt by then.

Lastly, the gradual approach of the strong jet stream and trough from the northwest will cause windy conditions to develop mainly across western Colorado. With relative humidity dropping this afternoon, Red Flag Warnings are in effect for today through tomorrow.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northeast Plains:

Mostly sunny early then becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms developing by mid-afternoon. Max 30-minute rainfall up to 1.1 inches possible, with max 1-hour rainfall up to 1.5 inches. Nuisance field and road ponding is possible today, but flooding is NOT expected. Storms are expected to become increasingly severe as they approach the KS/NE border with large hail and gusty winds being the predominant threats.

Primetime: 3PM through 10PM

Southeast Plains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Mountains & Raton Ridge:

Partly cloudy and continued very hot today with temperatures up to 15F above normal. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected mainly over the Palmer Ridge and Urban Corridor this afternoon. Max 30-minute rainfall up to 0.4 inches possible, along with gusty winds. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: 1PM through 7PM

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley & Northwest Slope:

Becoming mostly sunny and hot with temperatures of 5-10F above normal. Gusty winds will develop this afternoon and Red Flag Warnings are in place for parts of the area. An isolated shower or weak storm cannot be ruled out over the San Juan and Central Mountains but little if any rainfall is expected.

There is a Flood Advisory in effect for the Colorado River north of Grand Lake as snowmelt could cause minor flooding.

Issue Date: Saturday, June 11^th, 2022
Issue Time: 8:55AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

An early season heat wave will be on full display today across our state. As shown in the water vapor image, below, a strong ridge will remain in place today providing mid-level subsidence that will generally limit storm activity and crank afternoon high temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures will run 5-15F above normal across the state, making today the hottest day of the young summer before weak cooling begins by Sunday.

PW this morning measured 0.66 inches at Denver and 0.48 inches at Grand Junction. Statewide, PW ranged from 0.4 – 0.6 inches over the western half of the state and 0.5 – 0.8 across the eastern half. Some subtle moistening is expected over southwest Colorado as a weak pulse of mainly mid-level monsoonal moisture pushes up into the Four Corners region. Boundary layer moisture was marginal over western Colorado, but quite high further east with dewpoints exceeding 60F along the KS border! Overall, it will be the classic duel today between just enough instability to fuel storms and mid-level subsidence to suppress them. However, with a disturbance noted over AZ moving northeastward, we do expect an increase in storm coverage compared to yesterday. Widely scattered storms are expected to have their highest coverage over the Central and San Juan Mountains as well as over the Northeast Plains. However, with the limited instability, up to 600 J/kg CAPE, and steady storm motion, only light to briefly moderate rainfall is expected, along with gusty downdraft winds. Thus, flooding is NOT excepted today.

With the recent and ongoing hot weather, snowmelt will be nearing completion over the next few days for most areas. Until then, localized high flows will be possible especially over smaller basins in the Northern Mountains. A look at gauged flows this morning showed a couple of creeks and rivers running close to “Action” level: the Elk River north of Steamboat Springs, and the Colorado River north of Grand Lake. Remember that snowmelt-related flows at lower elevations (below 9,000 feet) usually peak daily during the overnight hours as it takes a while for the snowmelt to move down in elevation from the highest snowpack.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Mountains & Raton Ridge:

Becoming partly cloudy and very hot with temperatures 10-15F above normal. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly over the foothills and higher terrain around the Palmer Ridge, as well as over the Northeast and Southeast Plains. Max 30-minute rainfall up to 0.7 inches (east) and 0.4 inches (west). Gusty winds are also possible with the stronger storms. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: 2PM through 11PM

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley & Northwest Slope:

Becoming partly cloudy and very hot with temperatures 5-10F above normal. Isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly over the foothills and higher terrain around the San Juan Mountains. Max 30-minute rainfall up to 0.3 inches. Gusty winds are also possible with the stronger storms. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Localized high creek flows are possible over the Northern Mountains due to snowmelt. However, flooding is not expected at this time.

Primetime: 1PM through 9PM