Issue Date: Sunday, June 26th, 2022
Issue Time: 8:55AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Colorado remains under a weak flow aloft regime with more of a westerly flow over northern Colorado and southwesterly flow across the southern portion of the state forecast. It’s quite cool to borderline cold this morning, and afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be below normal statewide. This is especially true over the Southeast Plains where high temperatures are only forecast to reach into the low 60°Fs. Enjoy the cool while it lasts!

There are two areas of moisture marked in the visible satellite imagery below. The first is over eastern Colorado, which is producing cloudy and rainy conditions this morning. Rainfall currently occurring over the Southeast Plains and Southeast Mountains is forecast to continue through mid-afternoon with increasing upslope flow, and additional storms should developing over the high terrains by early afternoon further north. While PW was measured at 0.89 inches in Denver this morning, which is well above average, the colder temperatures and cloud cover will limit the instability that can build. Thus, only moderate showers are forecast with weaker thunderstorms that develop this afternoon through this evening.

The other area of moisture that is marked below is to Colorado’s west, which will help return widely scattered storms to the western high terrains today. PW at Grand Junction was also measured above normal at 0.85 inches, but most of the moisture was located at the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. That higher moisture aloft and the cooler temperatures that are forecast should limit the heavy rainfall potential today. With some mid-level energy also moving across the southern tier of state by this afternoon, higher accumulations and best rainfall coverage is forecast over the San Juan Mountains. All activity today will follow our typical diurnal cycle, so any moderate rainfall that develops should end by this evening. It will be possible for some light rainfall to linger over the southern high terrains overnight. Flooding is NOT forecast today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Southeast Mountains, Front Range, Raton Ridge, Southeast Plains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge & Northeast Plains:

Light showers will continue over the Southeast Plains and Southeast Mountains through this afternoon with some additional rainfall likely developing over the El Paso County area this morning. An additional 1.1 inches of liquid precipitation will be possible with more widespread totals reaching 0.6 inches (west). By early this afternoon, a second set of storms should fire over the Front Range. Rainfall should mostly stick to areas along and near the Continental Divide but a weak storm or two may spill into the Urban Corridor. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.5 inches and isolated storm totals up to 0.8 inches will be possible. Due to the gradual nature of the rainfall, flooding is NOT forecast today. Light showers may persist over the Southeast Mountains overnight.

Primetime: Ongoing to 9PM

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, Grand Valley & San Luis Valley:

Rainfall returns to the forecast, but with a drier surface layer, increasing cloud cover and cooler temperatures, rainfall should only be light to moderate in intensity today. Isolated max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.7 inches over the Central and San Juan Mountains will be possible under the stronger storms and storm totals up 1.25 inches are forecast by morning. Flooding is NOT forecast. Light showers may linger over the eastern San Juan Mountains tonight.

Primetime: 11:30AM to 10PM

Issue Date: Saturday, June 25th, 2022
Issue Time: 10AM MDT

— A LOW flood threat has been issued for the Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge and portions of the Front Range, Central Mountains and Urban Corridor
— A PM update is possible
— Fire-Burn Forecast Summary: 1 burn area under MODERATE threat; 2 burn areas under LOW threat; click HERE for more info

It was pretty easy to draw the cold front on today’s surface map with well-defined northerly winds along and behind it. The front is producing lots of cloud cover and wind over northeastern Colorado with isolated gusts up to 40mph observed over the plains earlier this morning. PW at Denver was measured at 0.69 inches with values reaching up to an inch over the plains. The observed cloud cover should help to keep rainfall chances more isolated north of I-70 this afternoon with the best chance for rainfall over the Front Range. Although, some weak storms may be able to break the cap this evening and produce some light, stratiform rainfall for the I-25 Corridor.

Better instability looks to develop over the southern Front Range/Palmer Ridge intersect and south. With moisture forecast to increase throughout the day from easterly surface flow and some extra mid-level lift arriving from New Mexico, it is possible that a few stronger storms may develop over the area. Slow southeast and east storm motion may allow for an hour up to a few hours of heavy rainfall over the higher terrains late this afternoon through the evening hours. A LOW flood threat has been issued for these reasons. Precipitation will likely continue overnight for high terrains near the southern border and Southeast Plains. While pockets of moderate rainfall will be possible, the lack of instability should limit the convective potential overnight.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Plains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge & Northeast Plains:

Over the northern portion of these forecast zones, isolated rainfall and storms should be mostly confined to the Front Range with max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.5 inches possible. Some lighter showers may be possible over the Urban Corridor tonight with isolated totals up to 0.3 inches possible.

Heavier rainfall will be possible late this afternoon through the evening hours over the southern high terrains. If there are some breaks in cloud cover and decent instability develops (1000 J/Kg of CAPE or so), a couple stronger storms could develop and produce 1-hour rain rates up to 1.25 inches. With slow steering flows and a couple rounds of rainfall forecast, there is also a longer duration flood threat with max 3-hour totals up to 2 inches possible. A LOW flood threat has been issued for the potential of road flooding, low-lying area ponding and mud flows/debris slides over steeper terrains. A PM update will be issued if cloud cover remains persistent, which would limit instability and the threat for stronger storms to develop.

Primetime: 2PM to Ongoing (flood threat ends by late evening)

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, Grand Valley & San Luis Valley:

It has dried out quite a bit over western Colorado behind the departing trough, although some residual moisture will likely hang around with only weak westerly flow aloft forecast today. This residual moisture should be enough for some weak storms to develop along and near the Continental Divide this afternoon with better storm chances forecast south over the San Juan Mountains. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.6 inches (south) and 0.3 inches (north/central) will be possible. Flooding is NOT expected.

Primetime: 1PM to 10PM

Issue Date: Friday, June 24th, 2022
Issue Time: 10:10AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today
— Fire-Burn Forecast Summary: 3 burn areas under MODERATE threat; 3 burn areas under LOW threat; click HERE for more info

Colorado will be under the influence of both southwesterly and westerly flow aloft as a shortwave and its associated lift (orange “X”) move NNE throughout the day and the High pressure center spins to our southeast. There is a noticeable decrease in PW from yesterday morning across southern Colorado, but residual moisture is likely to produce isolated precipitation over the southern high terrains again this afternoon. Better moisture remains north with PW at Grand Junction and Denver measured at 0.85 and 0.61 inches, respectively. With the shortwave producing some extra lift as it moves NNE, scattered southwest to northeast moving storms are forecast once again.

The atmosphere remains quite juicy over northwest Colorado, and dew points in the 50Fs were noted over the Grand Valley. With the extra lift arriving from the shortwave after a few more hours of heating, storms will likely produce local downpours, similar to yesterday. Faster steering flows with a speed max overhead should limit the flood threat from any one storm, but training storms may cause local higher totals through this evening. Grand Junction’s morning sounding shows a bit more dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, so rain rates should be at or slightly below yesterday. Therefore, flooding is NOT expected. However, this also means that if a stronger thunderstorm develops, there is a larger hail threat. As the shortwave passes by late afternoon, expect subsidence to fill in behind it.

As the mid-level energy arrives to eastern Colorado by mid-afternoon, widely scattered storms that develop over the high terrains are forecast to spill eastward into the adjacent plains. Better moisture is forecast over the far Northeast Plains, so expect more wetting rainfall for this region. However, with quick steering flows, flooding is NOT expected. The departing trough drops a strong cold front through the state overnight, which may produce some gusty winds as it drops south over eastern Colorado.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Front Range & Grand Valley:

Storms will be moving quickly today and max 30-minute rain rates up to 0.85 inches will be possible. Training storms may cause local totals just over 1 inch by this evening. If a stronger thunderstorm develops, severe hail and very strong outflow winds may be additional threats. Flooding is NOT expected; however, an NWS Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Grizzly Creek burn area. Please head over to our FBF page for additional burn area threats.

Primetime: 11AM to 8PM

Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge & Northeast Plains:

Storms return to the forecast with more of a wind threat than heavy rainfall threat today, especially west. Max 30-minute rain rates up to 0.6 inches will be possible over and just east of the Urban Corridor and Palmer Ridge. Over the far eastern plains, deeper moisture may allow isolated rain rates to reach up to 1.25 inches. Strong outflow winds up to 60 mph will be possible with the stronger storms along with hail out east. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range are forecast early tomorrow morning as the cold front moves through. Flooding is NOT expected.

Primetime: 1PM to 11PM

San Juan Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Southwest Slope, Raton Ridge, Southeast Plains & San Luis Valley:

Widely scattered storms are forecast over the mountains today favoring the Saguache County area for accumulation. Max 30-minute rain rates up to 0.50 inches will be possible, which means that flooding is NOT expected.  As storms move in from the west to eastern Colorado and potentially across the southern border, max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.25 inches are possible over the adjacent plains. Strong winds and lightning will be the main threats. Light showers may linger over the Southeast Plains into the overnight hours, but rainfall should end by mid-evening out west.

Primetime: 12PM to 3AM

Issue Date: Thursday, June 23rd, 2022
Issue Time: 10:50 AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today
— Fire-Burn Forecast Summary: 7 burn areas under LOW threat, click HERE for more info 

Temperatures are quite pleasant and mild this morning across Colorado. An upper-level cutoff low-pressure system is beginning to shift northeastward from east-central California into Nevada, while the southern plains high pressure system has shifted a bit further west. As a result, a break in the monsoonal moisture transport is expected. In its place, a dry airmass is being advected into southwestern Colorado this morning, as shown in the visible satellite image below, where a broken cloud deck is beginning to erode as drying is taking place. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave within the approaching upper jet is forecast to move through western Colorado this afternoon and increase wind speeds out of the west. This impulse is expected to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across western Colorado early this afternoon through the evening.

While Grand Junction observed PW of 0.89 inches this morning, the increasing southwesterly and westerly flow is expected to mix out surface moisture this afternoon. Still, some briefly heavy convective downpours are possible, particularly in the mountains where enhanced terrain-driven convergence may help intensify storms. Further east, Denver observed PW of 0.5 inches this morning, indicating more meager moisture. As such, the northeast portion of the state should remain relatively dry, aside from perhaps a stray light shower or two. The southeast portion of the state may also see a few storms in the afternoon, though they will likely be brief in nature due to decreasing moisture and weak instability. There is NO flooding expected today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, Northern Mountains & Front Range:

This morning, broken cloud cover overspreads northwest Colorado and temperatures are mild. Early this afternoon, scattered storms are expected to develop over northwest Colorado. The early development of these storms may limit their ability to take advantage of the peak daytime heating. However, stronger storms that develop today may have the potential to produce up to 0.75 inches of rain in 30 minutes. Additionally, strong outflow winds up to 50mph may also occur. Isolated areas of training storms over the higher terrains may cause 2-3 hour totals up to 1.25 inches. A second wave moving over western Colorado this evening will likely produce light, ongoing showers over the Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains through the night. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: Noon to Ongoing

Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley & Southeast Mountains:

This morning, the cloud deck is showing some more clearing as a drier air mass intrudes from the southwest. Storms that do develop this afternoon will likely be concentrated over the mountains and higher elevations of southwest Colorado, but due to an expected decrease in moisture, storms are not likely to be intense for these forecast areas. Still, some areas of the San Juans could see isolated rain rates as high as 0.5 inches in 30-minutes and storm totals up to 1 inch. Some lighter showers may persist overnight as a second wave of precipitation arrives from the west. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: 11AM to Ongoing

Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains & Raton Ridge:

This afternoon, a few widely scattered rain showers could re-develop over the Raton Ridge and Southeast Plains. However, due to weaker instability forecast across the area and intruding dry air from the southwest, these showers are not expected to produce a flood threat. Rain rates may reach up to 0.5 inches per hour, and isolated storm totals up to 0.9 inches will be possible. NO flooding is expected today.

Primetime: 1PM to 9PM