Issue Date: Thursday, May 5th, 2022
Issue Time: 8:40AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

The water vapor imagery below shows the upper-level Low has moved into the eastern portion of the state. There are still some showers occurring this morning just south of I-70 along the Kansas border. These should continue to shift eastward with the disturbance throughout the morning hours. Wrap around moisture is also causing some cloud cover and perhaps some spotty precipitation at the highest elevations over the northern/central mountains this morning. This will likely continue through midday.

Today we’re expecting a statewide increase in sunshine as the moisture and lift from the trough is replaced by drying and subsidence under a ridging pattern. High temperatures should reach the mid-60Fs to low 70Fs across the lower elevations with mid-50Fs to low 60Fs for the mountain valleys. Lack of moisture and lift mean that outside of the lighter precipitation occurring this morning, it should remain dry across the state. Therefore, flooding is not expected. More cloud cover is expected to move in overnight as some mid-level lift works into the flow from a shortwave to our north.

Dry and windy conditions are anticipated again today further south, and the San Luis Valley is under a Red Flag Warning. Tune into NWS Pueblo for the most up to date information.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains & Raton Ridge:

Isolated showers will continue along the Kansas border this morning before moving east by midday, but flooding is NOT expected. Drier conditions are forecast this afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Highs will reach the upper-60Fs to low 70Fs. Gusts between 20 and 25 mph are anticipated over the plains this afternoon.
Primetime: Ongoing to 11:30AM

Northern Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Front Range, Central Mountains & San Juan Mountains:

Likely some light precipitation/snow is falling over the northern mountain ranges this morning. This should begin to clear up throughout the morning. Could be a bit breezy along the northern Continental Divide and Southeast Mountains this afternoon. Highs should reach the mid-50Fs to low 60Fs in the mountain valleys.

San Luis Valley, Grand Valley, Northwest Slope & Southwest Slope:

Clear conditions are forecast today with an increase in cloud cover anticipated overnight. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the San Luis Valley with increasing fire danger into tomorrow. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid-70Fs by this afternoon.

Issue Date: Wednesday, May 4^th, 2022
Issue Time: 10:30AM

— A LOW flood threat has been posted for parts of the Southeast Plains and Raton Ridge

It seems that Mother Nature flipped a switch on Colorado, going from an ultra dry April to a wet and snowy start to May. Of course, given our historically drought-prone climate, as well as all of the Red Flag Warnings we have endured this spring, it is unlikely that anyone will be complaining!

As seen in the visible satellite image, below, the quick moving disturbance that was forecasted to barrel across the state in Monday’s Flood Threat Outlook, is doing exactly that. However, it is arguably outperforming its earlier forecasts due to the intense dynamics and ability to import at least some modest moisture from the southern Great Plains.

We expect the majority of central and eastern Colorado to experience at least some precipitation today. Two areas, in particular, deserve some more explanation. First, over the northern Front Range, the combination of moist, upslope low-level flow along with frontogenesis will produce a prolonged period of rain and higher-elevation snow, mainly west of I-25. There is no flood threat associated with this as precipitation rates will remain well below key flood thresholds. Second, over the Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains and Raton Ridge, some early breaks in the clouds will allow convective temperatures to be achieved leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. The possible formation of a new mesoscale low pressure system over the Arkansas River valley could extend the period of precipitation well into the evening and overnight hours. Instability will not be all that impressive, perhaps up to 800 J/kg of CAPE in parts of the Southeast Plains. However, with strong moisture convergence just north and east of a dryline, training of storms is possible leading to a more prolonged 3-4 hour period of heavier rainfall. Thus, a LOW flood threat of limited extent has been posted for parts of the region for this afternoon and evening. Rain rates will subside shortly after sunset as instability quickly wanes.

Lastly, on a good note, Red Flag Warnings have been lifted today as higher humidity will at least temporarily suppress the wildfire threat. Unfortunately, this looks like a brief respite with very dry conditions returning by Friday.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Raton Ridge and Southeast Plains:

Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Max 1-hour rainfall up to 1.2 inches with max 3-hour rainfall up to 1.8 inches supports a LOW flood threat for a limited part of the area along the NM border. Isolated flash flooding, debris slides and mud flows will be possible. Hail up to 1.0 inch could also accompany the strongest storms.

Primetime: 3PM to 7PM, then lighter rainfall into the overnight hours

Northwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Mountains & Palmer Ridge:

Overcast with scattered to numerous rain and snow showers increasing in coverage this afternoon. The snow level will be in the 7,500 – 9,000 feet level, depending on latitude (lower further north). Thunderstorms, and thundersnow, will also be possible especially east of the Continental Divide. Max 1-hour rainfall up to 0.8 inches will be possible in the lower elevations. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: Now through 9PM

Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope & San Luis Valley:

Becoming partly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Max 1-hour rainfall up to 0.4 inches. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: 1PM through 6PM

Issue Date: Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022
Issue Time: 9:25AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

The visible satellite imagery below is showing pockets of fog and cloud cover over the eastern portion of the state this morning. This should continue to burn off with a little daytime heating. There is not much of a break between storm systems as a more active weather pattern persists. Dense cloud cover has already begun moving into western Colorado associated with the next closed Low system marked below. This Low will drop a cold front across the state today and tonight, which will support scattered showers over the north/central western valleys and snow over the mountains by midday. Precipitation will favor the Northern/Central Mountains for accumulation, but lighter accumulation is still expected over the San Juan Mountains. This area of lift will reach the Front Range and adjacent plains by late this afternoon bringing snow to the mountains and a rain/snow mix over the northern Urban Corridor tonight. Areas further south should stay dry until tomorrow. Due to the majority of precipitation falling as snow over the mountains, and only light showers anticipated for the lower elevations, flooding is NOT expected.

It is expected to remain dry across the lower elevations near the southern border, and with the approaching system, a tightening pressure gradient means windy conditions return. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area due to the combination of low relative humidity values and sustained winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. Be sure to tune into your local NWS office for the latest details.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northern Mountains, Front Range, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope & San Juan Mountains:

More snow is expected for the mountains today favoring the Central, Northern, and northern Front Range Mountains for accumulation. Up to 6 inches of fresh snow can be expected over the Flat Tops and Park Range. Liquid precipitation amounts of up to 0.25 inches will be possible over the central and northern San Juan Mountains. Flooding is NOT expected.

Primetime: 1PM to 7PM

Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor & Northeast Plains:

Warmer with increasing cloudiness, especially by afternoon. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible this afternoon and evening with the highest coverage in the foothills. Max 1-hour rainfall up to 0.5 inches. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: 3PM to 11PM

Southeast Mountains, San Luis Valley, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Southeast Plains & Raton Ridge:

Mostly sunny early, then increasing cloudiness with gusty winds developing this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers are possible over western and central areas. Max 1-hour rainfall up to 0.2 inches. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Red Flag Warnings continue to be in effect for parts of the area this afternoon. Please stay tuned to National Weather Service updates on these.

Primetime: 3PM to 9PM

Issue Date: Monday, May 2nd, 2022
Issue Time: 9:25AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Woke up to rain in Denver this morning, which was a nice change of pace after such a dry April. The upper-level trough from yesterday, that is causing this lift and rainfall, can be seen in the visible satellite image below. As this feature advances east throughout the day, it is expected to continue to produce widespread showers over the northeast quadrant of the state. Rainfall should begin to diminish from west to east, with the movement of the trough, and rainfall is expected to end by this evening. Weak upslope flow behind the departing trough will also help create some precipitation over the Northern Mountains and Front Range later this afternoon, but accumulation should be on the lighter end. 

Quite a few missing factors for heavy rainfall production today, so there is NO flood threat issued. However, it’s looking like another good soaking for portions of the far Northeast Plains. Lesser amounts of measurable precipitation are forecast for the Urban Corridor and northern Palmer Ridge, as well as over the Front Range. Elsewhere, partly cloudy to clear skies are forecast with must cooler temperatures over eastern Colorado.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts: 

Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains & Raton Ridge:

Rainfall continues over the Northeast Plains this morning and is forecast through late afternoon/early evening. Precipitation will likely fill in over the very northern Southeast Plains near the Kansas border. Isolated max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.60 inches with widespread storm totals just over 1 inch are possible. Although it was a good soaking yesterday, it’s doubtful that soils are saturated. Outside of some minor ponding, flooding is NOT expected today. Clearing behind the trough will bring chilly temperatures to the Southeast Plains & Raton Ridge tonight, and a Freeze Watch has been issued by NWS Pueblo.

Primetime: Ongoing to 7:30PM

Northern Mountains, Front Range, Palmer Ridge & Urban Corridor:

Some light precipitation is falling over the high terrains this morning. Weak upslope flow behind the trough should help to produce some more light precipitation this afternoon focused mainly over the Front Range with snow for the highest elevations. While some precipitation may spill into the immediate adjacent plains, it isn’t expected to push into the Urban Corridor much. Precipitation totals up to 0.30 inches will be possible, but flooding is NOT expected.

Primetime: Ongoing to 6PM

Southeast Mountains, Central Mountains, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, Grand Valley, Northwest Slope & Southwest Slope:

Broken cloud cover is expected over the northern/central mountains today with clearer conditions south. Outside of some light rainfall this morning, accumulation should be limited to the highest terrains near the Continental Divide. High cloud cover will move in from the west tonight as the next, quick-moving system approaches from the west. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Primetime: Ongoing to 5PM