Issue Date: Friday, May 13^th, 2022
Issue Time: 8:45AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today
— Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for parts of the state

After a series of disturbances that raced across Colorado over the past few days fueling mainly a wind threat, things will quiet down in the upper atmosphere today. As shown in the visible satellite image, below, a nonchalant zonal flow is seen from the California coast all the way into Colorado. To the north, relatively higher moisture will support some enhanced cloudiness, along with breezy conditions mainly over northern Colorado. Red Flag Warnings are still in effect mainly over northeast Colorado today. To the south, bone dry conditions will persist though the subsidence of gusty winds will relax the fire threat a bit. This morning’s PW at Denver measured at an incredibly dry 0.17 inches. This would not be too unusual in January, but in mid-May, this sits in the lowest few percentiles, compared to the historical record. Thus, with no precipitation expected anywhere in the state, flooding is also NOT expected today.

Looking ahead to the weekend, an upper-level ridge is expected to develop and push temperatures above seasonal normal statewide. Snowmelt will increase notably over the central and northern high terrains, but precipitation is not expected until perhaps Sunday afternoon.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Front Range, Urban Corridor, San Luis Valley & Palmer Ridge:

Mostly sunny and seasonably warm today with temperatures 3-6F above normal. Breezy conditions will develop towards the WY border, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect over the Northeast Plains. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope & Northwest Slope:

Partly cloudy and seasonably cool today with temperatures 2-5F below normal. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Issue Date: Thursday, May 12th, 2022
Issue Time: 9:55AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today
— Widespread Red Flag Warnings in effect

The trough axis is marked as an orange dashed line in the visible satellite imagery below. Throughout the day, this feature is forecast to move to the northeast bringing with it a little mid-level lift and more widespread, windy conditions. As the Low clips the northwest corner of the state, it will likely bring some modest moisture to the area. PW at Denver was measured at 0.39 inches with moisture located at the surface and near 300mb, and some slightly higher dew points were noted in northeast Utah. This should be just enough moisture for some light precipitation to develop this morning and into the afternoon hours over the Northwest quadrant of the state (just south of the Wyoming border). Generally speaking, it is still quite dry over this region, so only scattered, light precipitation is anticipated, and accumulation is most likely over the higher elevations. A weak storm or two may also fire over the Cheyenne Ridge by midday, but northwest steering flow should keep the measurable precipitation north of the state. Flooding is NOT anticipated today.

Under the influence of the Low, strong winds and critical fire weather are anticipated once again across large portions of the state. The focus area today will be over areas east of the Continental Divide, associated with the location of the jet. The highest fire danger is forecast east of the dotted red line in image above. A very dry air mass will also be advected into the southwest corner of the state, so although winds will be less today, still use caution with any activities that could produce a spark. The good news is that the wind threat should begin to ease up with the northeasterly movement of the jet by this afternoon. However, a secondary peak in wind speed is forecast tonight, which will likely redevelop windy conditions over the Front Range tonight.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope & Front Range:

Scattered precipitation will likely develop over these regions, just south of the Wyoming border, by mid-morning. Without much moisture to work with, only scattered, light showers are forecast through the afternoon. Isolated max totals just under 0.20 inches will be possible, and high terrains will be favored for accumulation. Flooding is NOT expected.

Very strong winds are forecast to develop over the next hour or two along the Front Range through mid-afternoon, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Windy conditions may redevelop over the high peaks of the Front Range overnight.

Primetime: 10AM to 5PM

Southeast Plains, Northeast Plains, Urban Corridor, San Luis Valley, Palmer Ridge, Raton Ridge, Central Mountains & Southeast Mountains:

Dry and windy day ahead. Critical fire weather is forecast for all or portions of these regions this afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible over the foothills. Paired with dry conditions (remaining surface moisture mixing out), a Red Flag Warning has been issued until 9PM this evening. High Wind Warnings are also issued through noon for El Paso and Huerfano Counties where gusts up to 55mph were already recorded this morning. Since rainfall is not forecast, there is NO flood threat issued. Tune into your local NWS office today for the latest on the fire danger threat.

Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains & Southwest Slope:

Another dry day on tap, but it should at least be less windy. The exception for this will be over the eastern San Juan Mountains this morning where gusts could reach 50 mph. Despite the lack of windy conditions, there are some very low dew points (dry air) that are expected to work their way into the southwest corner with the SSW wind. So, use caution with activities that could cause a spark. Afternoon high temperatures will be more seasonable today with mid to upper 60Fs forecast for the lower elevations.

Issue Date: Wednesday, May 11th, 2022
Issue Time: 9:45AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today
— Widespread Red Flag Warnings in effect

There’s finally a chance for isolated storms late this afternoon, although the area potentially affected will be small and storms are expected to quickly move into Kansas. The dryline (dashed orange below) will become better defined and push slightly east by late this afternoon with the development of a surface Low over southeast Wyoming. There’s a good chance that this feature will end up draped over eastern Baca and Prowers Counties, but there is a possibility that it mixes out too far east. Mid-level energy moving through the flow will help trigger scattered storms along the dryline by late this afternoon. Storms may produce some moderate rainfall, strong wind gusts and small hail, but they should quickly steer east. So, there is NO flood threat expected.

Fire danger remains high today, and into this weekend, with increasing temperatures and low moisture. The Low over the California will begin to move east. This will continue to produce strong southwest winds across the state, and between the increasing pressure gradient and warmer temperatures helping to mix these higher winds down, it’s going to get windy by late morning. Several Red Flag Warnings and High Wind Warnings have been issued, so be sure to tune into your local NWS office for more details. Winds look to subside a bit by this evening though they may continue over the far eastern plains, western Colorado and the south-central mountains.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Southeast Plains:

It’s going to be a hot one today with highs reaching 90-95F. Storms could form over the eastern portion of Baca and Prowers Counties late this afternoon. Isolated max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.70 inches are possible. The main threat from these storms will be strong outflow winds and dangerous lightning although small hail may also occur. Steering flows will quickly move them into Kansas by the early evening hours, so flooding is NOT expected. It’s also going to windy with southerly winds forecast in the 20-25 mph range and gusts up to 35 mph will be possible. Smoke and dust may impact visibility over the area.

Primetime: 4PM to 7PM

Northern Mountains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains, Grand Valley, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains & Southwest Slope:

It’s going to be windy today and potentially through the night. Red Flag Warnings and High Wind Warnings have been issued with gusts up to 60 mph forecast. This will create blowing dust, which could limit visibility. Too dry for any rainfall, and as always, be careful with activities that could cause a spark. High temperatures will also increase with 80Fs forecast for the lower elevations and upper 60Fs to low 70Fs for the mountains.

Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains & Palmer Ridge:

Fire danger increases today as well as high temperatures. Across the lower elevations highs will reach into the upper 80Fs to low 90Fs with 70Fs for the mountain valleys. Red Flag Warnings have been issued and southwest winds are forecast to reach the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Wind will likely continue overnight for the eastern plains.

Issue Date: Tuesday, May 10th, 2022
Issue Time: 6:50AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today
— Widespread Red Flag Warnings in effect

As shown in the water vapor image, below, a strong trough has entered the California coast as of this morning. It is being accompanied by a very powerful jet stream, to the tune of a 160 mph strength, positioned northeastward across the intermountain West. Normally, this would probably be good news for Colorado, as we are beginning to enter our rainy season for the eastern Plains. Unfortunately, that is not the case this time around, as moisture remains lacking across our state. This morning’s PW values are in the 0.2 – 0.4 inch range statewide, compared to a normal value of 0.4-0.7 inches. Thus, we expect dry weather today and flooding is NOT expected.

The main impacts from the strong jet stream will be gusty winds once again. Combined with the low moisture content, this has triggered more Red Flag Warnings that cover the central half of Colorado. Additionally, smoke from New Mexico’s three large wildfires will get advected northeast into mainly southeast Colorado this afternoon leading to poor air quality. Incredibly, these three large NM wildfires (Cook’s Peak, Hermit Peak and Cerro Pelado) now exceed a combined 280,000 acres.

Lastly, a quick look at the snowpack shows snowmelt is nearing completion for some of our southernmost basins (notably, the San Juan and Rio Grande rivers) and well underway for other parts of the San Juan Mountains and Central Mountains. With temperatures only slightly above normal today, we do not expect any melt-related flooding issues.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Northern Mountains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Central Mountains & Palmer Ridge:

Mostly sunny early then some high clouds expected during the afternoon. It will be warm with temperatures generally 5-10F above normal, though the far southeast parts of the Southeast Plains will get to 15F above normal (and above 90F). Gusty winds and low humidity has prompted Red Flag Warnings for parts of the region. Smoky conditions are also expected to worsen this afternoon mainly over the Southeast Plains. Flooding is NOT expected today.

Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope & San Luis Valley, Northwest Slope, Southeast Mountains & Raton Ridge:

Partly cloudy, windy and seasonably warm with high temperatures about 3-6F above normal. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the southern parts of the region. Flooding is NOT expected today.