Issue Date: 5/15/2017
Issue Time: 9:20 AM

A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS AND PURGATOIRE RIVERS DUE TO CONTINUED FLOODING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

The upper trough will continue to dig along the West Coast today, placing the upper-level low over Southern California/Nevada today/tonight. Due to this, warm, southwest flow aloft will continue today, pushing temperatures above yesterday’s readings. Additionally, a bit of upper-level moisture will stream across the state, bringing a few extra high clouds for this afternoon and evening.

All is not clear, however, as a couple showers and thunderstorms are expected in a two areas. First, the Northern Mountains, and northern portions of the Front Range and foothills will notice a few isolated showers this afternoon/evening as a sufficient-enough moisture surge pushes through. These showers will be fighting very dry low-level air, so nothing more than a few sprinkles and gusty outflow winds are expected.

Second, a lee surface trough/dryline will lie across far eastern portions of the Eastern Plains and Northeast Plains. Along this boundary, a couple thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon/evening and quickly move eastward into Kansas. Brief periods of heavy rainfall will attend these storms, with strong winds, lightning, and hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter the main impacts. No flooding is expected due to quick storm motions. For more information regarding rain rates and timing, please see the zone-specific forecast discussions below.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Mostly sunny skies are expected today with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday’s readings. Far eastern portions of the Northeast and Southeast Plains will experience a couple thunderstorms this afternoon/evening before they race out of Colorado to the east. Maximum rain rates underneath thunderstorms will be 0.3-0.6 inches/hour.

Timing: 2 PM – 8 PM

Front Range and Northern Mountains:

Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will be the story for the majority of the area. However, a couple of isolated showers are expected to develop late this afternoon and into the evening over the higher terrain. Gusty winds and a few sprinkles will be the only result.

Timing: 4 PM – Midnight

Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southwest Slope, and Grand Valley:

Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are the story today, with increasing high clouds late this afternoon/evening. Fire danger is elevated today due to gusty winds and very little moisture, so be careful with anything that may start a fire today.

Issue Date: 5/14/2017
Issue Time: 8:15 AM

A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER DUE TO CONTINUED FLOODING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

Warm and mainly dry southwesterly flow aloft continues today across Colorado, as noted in the water vapor image below. This will result in another day of dry conditions across most of the state, with the exception being portions of the Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge. A few factors will be at play, including: 1) the transport of low-level moisture back into the northern Front Range and foothills, 2) a surface front across northeast Colorado providing favorable wind shear/convergence, and 3) some southeast flow pulling moisture back into far eastern Colorado. Moisture will still remain shallow for these storms, which will limit the heavy rainfall potential, and thus, no flood threat is warranted. However, one or two of the storms will be on the strong-to-severe side, with the main impacts being strong winds and hail. For more information, regarding rain rates and timing, please see the zone-specific forecast discussions below.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Front Range, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Mostly sunny and dry for the majority of these regions today, with high temperatures just a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Only a couple showers/thunderstorms are expected, across northern portions of the Front Range, Urban Corridor, and Northeast Plains, and eastern portions of the Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge. Heavy rainfall is not expected, with maximum rain rates in the 0.25-0.50 inches/hour range.

Timing: 3 PM – Midnight

Southeast Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, and Southwest Slope:

Mostly sunny and dry conditions will be the name of the weather game today, with highs just a few degrees cooler than yesterday’s readings. Clouds will increase a bit during the afternoon over the higher terrain, but no rainfall is expected.

Issue Date: 5/13/2017
Issue Time: 8:20 AM

A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER DUE TO CONTINUED FLOODING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

The upper-level ridge axis has slid to the east of Colorado, as evidenced on the water vapor image below. Due to this, southwesterly flow aloft has returned to the state, and within it, a weak disturbance is poised to rotate across the state today. Moisture will still be limited, especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so heavy rainfall is not expected. Instead, any of the showers/thunderstorms that do form will be high-based and produce very little rainfall at the surface. Coverage will be isolated-to-widely scattered, with activity beginning over the mountains and moving over the adjacent plains with time. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main threats. Aside from the showers/thunderstorms, today’s high temperatures will be above average once again.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Mostly sunny skies will dominate the weather today, with high temperatures climbing 10-15 degrees above normal. A few high-based showers/thunderstorms are expected to move over the adjacent lower elevations from the mountains, bringing gusty winds and very little rainfall. Maximum rain rates will be 0.1-0.2 inches/hour.

Timing: 3 PM – 10 PM

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, and Southwest Slope:

Mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures will be the main weather story today. A few isolated-to-widely scattered are expected this afternoon/evening, with the main impacts of gusty winds and some cloud-to-ground lightning. Limited moisture means very little rainfall is expected, with maximum rain rates of 0.1-0.2 inches/hour.

Timing: 2 PM – 10 PM, with one or two lingering showers until around midnight

Issue Date: 5/12/2017
Issue Time: 8:27 AM

A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER DUE TO CONTINUED FLOODING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

The water vapor image below shows a favorable pattern for a beautiful end to the work week here in Colorado. A high pressure ridge will slide across the state today, resulting in plenty of sunshine and above normal high temperatures for eastern Colorado and lower elevations of western Colorado.

Over the high country, in addition to the above normal temperatures, a few isolated-to-widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. This is due to the combination of orographic effects, daytime heating, and residual moisture. Any rainfall, though, is expected to be light due to limited available moisture.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Mostly sunny skies with above average high temperatures will close out the work week across these regions. Due to the approach of the next low pressure system across the Pacific Northwest, gusty southerly winds are expected later this afternoon through tonight.

Front Range, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southwest Slope, and Grand Valley:

Mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures will be the main story today. A few isolated-to-widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will interrupt the otherwise fantastic mid-May day across the high country. All rainfall is expected to be light, with gusty winds being the main impact. Rain rates will be less than 0.2 inches/hour.

Timing: 2 PM – 9 PM