Issue Date: 5/9/2020
Issue Time: 7:50 AM

— Flooding is NOT expected today

A pleasant, albeit breezy, day is expected for most of Colorado as dry air aloft streams across the state (yellow shading in the water vapor image below). This dry air will keep skies mostly sunny, and high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. At the surface, a cool front that passed through northern Colorado overnight will continue its trek southward through the day, bringing gusty winds to southern Colorado through the afternoon. Relative humidities will keep fire danger down across southeast Colorado, but drier conditions exist across southwest Colorado where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of the Southwest Slope and San Juan Mountains.

A few isolated showers may develop this afternoon/evening along the Front Range and Southeast Mountains, though they will produce more gusty winds than rain. A few sprinkles, perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, and that will be that. Farther out over the Northeast Plains, the trailing energy from a disturbance currently centered over the Dakotas (red “X” in water vapor image above) will try to spark an isolated, high-based thundershower, but the probability of occurrence is low. If one develops, expect mainly gusty winds and lightning, but very little rainfall.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. Hover over the threat areas for more details and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Plenty of sunshine expected today, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Breezy conditions are expected, especially across the eastern plains. A few isolated showers may develop along the higher terrain of the Front Range and Southeast Mountains this afternoon, but little, if any, rainfall is expected. A stray, isolated high-based thunderstorm or two may develop over the Northeast Plains during the afternoon/evening, producing mainly gusty winds and lightning. Rain rates from any activity are expected to be less than 0.2 inches/hour.

Timing: Noon – 10 PM

Northwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, and San Luis Valley:

Mostly sunny skies will allow plenty of sunshine to filter across the area, with mild high temperatures expected. Breezy conditions, dry fuels, and low relative humidity has elevated fire danger over the Southwest Slope and San Juan Mountains, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Please see your local National Weather Service office for more information.

Issue Date: Friday, May 8th, 2020
Issue Time: 8:25AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

A cold front blew through last night into early this morning, and not quietly as I’m sure you heard the winds gusts. This has helped produce morning cloud cover over eastern Colorado and the Front Range. Moisture is limited to the bottom ~1km of the atmosphere, so expecting this to start burning off throughout the morning as dry air mixes it out. The clouds and the cold air behind the front will help keep afternoon temperatures down with highs slightly below normal. Subsidence over the state and a dry air mass will nix the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The clear skies will likely cause some low overnight temperatures, as the cloud cover last night helped act as a blanket for surface temperatures. Broken cloud cover is still forecast to increase over the northwest quadrant of the state and over the mountains this evening as the next system (orange “X”) starts to slip south into Wyoming.

Cooler temperatures and an exiting jet stream will keep surface winds light, thus reducing critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 2PM this afternoon to 8PM this evening for the eastern San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. Tune into NWS Pueblo for more information.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

 

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

San Luis Valley & San Juan Mountains:

The one area of fire weather concern is over the San Juan Mountains (especially eastern) and San Luis Valley. As mentioned in yesterday’s FTO, this area is experiencing increasing drought conditions, which means plenty of dry fuels for burning. Combined with 15 to 20 mph surface winds this afternoon (lee trough) and a dry air mass, relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the single digits. Please use extreme caution with any open flames. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 70Fs over the Valley and 50Fs over the mountain valleys.

Front Range, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains, & Raton Ridge:

Highs will be quite pleasant this afternoon will be in the 60Fs for the eastern plains with 50Fs over the lower elevations in the mountains. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the morning and then may slightly increase late this afternoon as the next system approaches form the north. Rainfall is not forecast; therefore, flooding is not expected.

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, & Southwest Slope:

Bit warmer over western Colorado, with not much change in the afternoon highs. Clear conditions to start the day due to a very dry air mass in place. The dew point in this morning’s sounding at Grand Junction was 15F (very low). High, broken cloud cover may be possible over the Northwest Slope this evening. Rainfall is not forecast.

Issue Date: Thursday, May 7th, 2020
Issue Time: 8:30AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Today’s main weather story will again be Elevated and Critical fire weather for the state. Marked in yellow below on the water vapor imagery are the main areas of concern. A strong upper level trough (to our north) will start to move to the southeast throughout the day, and a tightening surface pressure gradient/upper level jet with that feature will increase the wind speed. The imagery below is also showing very dry conditions across the state, and the moisture associated with the approaching trough is well to our north and east (white, purple, and blue). That translates to low relative humidity, and combining with dry fuels, increased fire danger. Very light showers may be possible over the Front Range overnight as a cold front drops through the area with an increase in cloud cover to the east. Flooding is not forecast.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Raton Ridge, & Southeast Plains:

Over eastern Colorado, surface winds will shift and increase as the first boundary moves through by late morning making the winds more northerly. Then, colder air moves through tonight (cold front) as there is another push of stronger, northerly winds. This will knock down high temperatures statewide tomorrow, and it may produce some light showers and cloud cover as it pushes southward overnight along the Front Range. Moisture will be limited, so accumulations will generally stay under 0.15 inches. Fire danger will decrease with the cooler temperatures, even though winds will continue to be in the 15 to 25 mph range overnight for the eastern plains.  Be sure to tune into your local NWS office for the latest.

Primetime: 1AM to 5AM

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley, Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, & San Juan Mountains:

For western Colorado, surface winds will be from the northwest with more westerly surface winds over the mountains. Snowpack should help keep the fire danger lower over the mountains, although the lower elevation valleys will still have an increased risk. Warm temperatures and dry fuels will elevate the fire risk for the lower elevations of these regions. High surface winds will decrease this evening for western Colorado and the mountains. Gusts as high as 35 mph (lower elevations) and 60 mph (mountain passes) will be possible this afternoon. Be sure to tune into your local NWS office for the latest.

Issue Date: Wednesday, May 6th, 2020
Issue Time: 8:25AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Another cold start with the warmest overnight temperatures noted in the Southeast Plains and Grand Valley (mid 40Fs). The visible satellite imagery below is showing broken cloud cover over the Northwest Slope this morning. The axis of the upper level ridge will be overhead today, which will start to flatten out into this evening. So, the two main weather stories today with be an increase high temperatures statewide and escalating westerly surface winds over western and south, central Colorado. With relative humidity forecast to drop into the single digits as well over western Colorado, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon to 9PM this evening. This includes the Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley and northern Central Mountains. A surface low moves in from the north this evening, which may help cool off temperatures overnight. However, this tightening pressure gradient, with no moisture associated with it, is anticipated to keep critical fire weather in the forecast for tomorrow.

Over eastern Colorado, surface winds are forecast be more mild from the southeast as a surface low moves south from Wyoming. Paired with slightly higher relative humidity, this should keep critical fire conditions from being met. Without much low level moisture, just looking at some afternoon cloud cover again. Expecting clouds to form over the mountains during the early afternoon and push into the adjacent plains with the northwest flow aloft.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley, Central Mountains & San Juan Mountains:

An increase in westerly surface winds is forecast this afternoon. Paired with warm temperatures, dry fuels and low relative humidity, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon to 9PM. Winds will be in the 10 to 25 mph range with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Be sure to use extreme caution the next few days with anything that can produce a spark, and tune into your local NWS office for the most up to date information.

Northern Mountains, Front Range, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains & Southeast Plains:

High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-70Fs for the lower elevations and 60Fs for the mountain valleys. No rainfall is anticipated this afternoon, but cloud cover should increase throughout the day. Critical fire weather is anticipated for tomorrow, so be sure to tune back in to the FTB.