Issue Date: Tuesday, September 13th, 2016
Issue Time: 10:10AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today.

The broad, upper-level trough is easily seen centered over central California on this morning’s water vapor image (below). This cut-off disturbance will maintain its intensity and slowly approach Colorado today. Low-level moisture has recovered over the past 24 hours so that morning precipitable water (PW) values are in the 0.6 to 0.9 inch range across the state. A thin low-cloud deck is noted this morning east of the Continental Divide, which will likely limit surface heating and instability away from the foothills. Sunshine over the western part of the state will provide instability for scattered showers and weak thunderstorms today. Farther east, the highest instability and dynamics are expected to be juxtaposed over the foothills along the entire I-25 corridor. However, moisture will be marginal and upslope flow will be limited to the lowest 3,000 feet. Although scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially over the Palmer Ridge, maximum rain rates are expected to stay just below flood threat levels. Thus, flooding is not expected today. Expect heavy rainfall rates tomorrow as the disturbance moves closer to Colorado.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Issue Date: 9/12/2016
Issue Time: 9:15 AM

NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.

The Low Pressure trough from the northern US will continue to affect the weather in the state, while a cool front that moves to the south and southwest across the state will be the main weather driver of the day. Continued southwesterly flow aloft, as well as near the surface in the morning hours, will continue to advect moisture into southern portions of the High Country today, possibly sparking off a few isolated showers in the late morning hours. (Elevated moisture levels that began yesterday afternoon can be seen in the plot below.)  The greater chance of precipitation will occur later in the day as the cool front makes its way across the state from the north. Scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms will begin to form across the southern high country in the early afternoon and extend to northern portions of the mountains by mid- to late afternoon. Scattered precipitation will proceed into the Eastern Plains by early evening as the front moves over the mountains. Scattered precipitation during the daytime should give way to isolated showers later in the evening and nighttime hours over portions of the Eastern Plains and High Country.

The combination of the upper-level trough, southwesterly flow aloft, and a cool front moving across the state will all combine to set up a relatively wet day today throughout most portions of Colorado, thus easing the fire danger that was initially posted yesterday. Rainfall totals should be relatively light, though, with possible localized heavier amounts not exceeding 1 inch for the day. Rainfall amounts and intensities will not be substantial enough to create any risk of flash flooding; therefore, no flood threat is being issued today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge:

An upper-level through and a cool front moving in from the north will be the main weather drivers for the Urban Corridor and Eastern Plains today. The major chances of precipitation should hold off until the mid- to late afternoon hours as scattered showers and possible thunderstorms move into the region from the west. Isolated precipitation will continue into the evening hours as the front pushes further to the south and west. Total precipitation should not exceed 0.75 inches.

Northern Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, and San Luis Valley:

Continued southwesterly flow will bring in added moisture to southern portions of the High Country in the morning hours possibly causing a few spotty showers to pop. As a cool front moves in from the north, precipitation will become scattered in the afternoon and evening hours throughout the entire High Country, beginning in the Southwest Slopes and San Juan Mountains in the early afternoon and progressing to the northeast. Rainfall intensities will remain below flash flooding thresholds; therefore, no flood threat has been issued.  Total precipitation should not exceed 1 inch.

Issue Date: 9/11/2016
Issue Time: 9:15 AM

NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.

The High Pressure ridge and dry air will remain over the state during this solemn day of remembrance. The pleasant and cooler temperatures from yesterday over the Eastern Plains and Urban Corridor will yield to substantially higher and near-record temperatures that could reach into the lower 90’s; strong winds will also be a factor today in the High Country and Western Slopes. Strong westerly/southwesterly desert winds that will be gusting between 30 and 40 mph will bring more warm and dry air into this region as temperatures rise and dew points fall throughout the day. Already low humidity can be observed at two sites in the plot below, resulting in almost no chance of precipitation anywhere in the state today.

The combination of dry air, warm temperatures, and particularly strong winds in the High Country and Western Slopes will provide the ingredients for a potentially hazardous day in terms of fire danger. Please take extra precautions with campfires today as it just takes one spark to set things off. A shifting weather pattern over the next several days should bring some needed relief throughout the week.

Please remember to take a moment today to remember all those affected by the events of 9/11/01.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge:

Very warm and dry conditions will be the story today as continued westerly flow affects the region. Temperatures will be near record levels, so please stay hydrated and remain in the shade if you must go out during the afternoon hours. Overnight temperatures will be bring some relief beginning in the early evening hours. There is no chance of precipitation today.

Northern Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, and San Luis Valley:

Sunny, dry, and warm conditions will be the story today. Combine these factors with strong gusty winds, and you have all of the ingredients for a potentially hazardous day in terms of fire danger. Please take any and all precautions today if you are working with campfires or any other activity that involves a potential spark. Enjoy this warm, late summer day!

Issue Date: 9/10/2016
Issue Time: 9:00 AM

NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.

A dry air mass will maintain its grip over Colorado through the period, resulting in pleasant conditions across the state. After the cool front passed through yesterday, temperatures this morning started off on the chilly side, giving the hint that Autumn is just around the corner. Temperatures will be right around normal for the date, and this late-summer day will beg you to get outside and enjoy the weather. This evening, one or two weak showers may develop over the San Juan Mountains as *some* low-level moisture begins its slow return, but very little rain (if any) will reach the surface.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Northeast Plains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Sunny and dry with pleasant late-summer temperatures. Get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather.

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, and San Luis Valley:

Sunny and dry, with a few high-level clouds noted aloft. After a chilly start to the morning, especially across portions of the Northern Mountains and Northwest Slope, temperatures will warm to seasonal norms. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out later this evening across the San Juan Mountains, resulting in sprinkles at the surface, at best; virga will be the likeliest result. Enjoy the day!