Issue Date: Friday, May 3rd, 2019
Issue Time: 8:25AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Visible satellite imagery showing fog over the eastern plains to start the day. Daytime heating and the low continuing to traverse eastward will start to break up this cloud cover by late morning. With the trough to the east of the state today, high pressure will start to build into the area. The shift in upper level winds from northwest to west will pull in a dry air mass from the Great Basin. This should nearly nix the chances for measurable precipitation this afternoon. Residual moisture may allow some scattered clouds to popup over the higher terrains favoring the Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains this afternoon. Can’t rule out a sprinkle or two over the higher elevations, but with such low dew points, some light winds and shade are the more likely outcome. High temperatures across the state are also expected to rebound to more seasonal values with highs over the lower elevations reaching 65°F-70°F. With plentiful sunshine forecast statewide, flooding is not expected.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Northern Mountains, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, Central Mountains:

After another night of freezing temperatures, though highs today are forecast to reach more climatological values. Lows last night near Craig were measured at 27°F with 19°F recorded at Pagosa Springs. This afternoon, scattered clouds are likely over the higher terrains favoring the northern portion of these regions. Cloud cover should also increase over night across all zones, which should help keep low temperatures a bit higher than the last couple of nights. Melting of the snowpack over the San Juan and Central Mountains will likely pick up again today (through this weekend), and the Flood Advisory for the Conejos and San Antonio Rivers continues as minor flooding is still being reported. As anticipated, flooding is not expected today.

Primetime: 2PM to 5PM

Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains:

Over the far eastern plains, some fog and low level clouds are being reported. This should start to break up by late morning and allow for plentiful sunshine throughout the day. Also forecast are scattered clouds over the higher terrains this afternoon, but they are not expected to produce measurable rainfall. Upslope flow over the southern portion of these regions overnight will produce some cloud cover that will likely linger through tomorrow morning. The heaviest of the cloud cover should be over the far eastern plains where there is some moisture return later tonight. Flooding is not expected.

Primetime: 2PM to 7PM

Issue Date: Thursday, May 2nd, 2019
Issue Time: 8:55AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

West and southwest flow aloft is expected to take over today as the base of the broad trough slowly shifts eastward. Embedded in the flow are a few minor shortwaves, which will help provide lift for some scattered storms throughout the day. Also, drier air has also moved into the state, which should help limit the areal coverage and rain rates of those storms this afternoon. Currently, the visible satellite imagery shows quite a bit of cloud cover over the eastern plains with more scattered clouds over the higher terrains west of the Continental Divide. A station in the Central Mountains near the Continental Divide is even reporting some light snow. With the drier air in place, the cloudiness to the east should start to breakup with a little solar heating.

Early this afternoon, expecting coverage of scattered storms to increase over the higher terrains (east and west of the Divide) though the best chance for rainfall will be over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains as the shortwave moves through. As the storms east of the Divide move into the adjacent plains, with the westward steering winds, daytime heating will allow some instability to build. These means a couple thunderstorms are likely this afternoon, though they are not expected to reach severe criteria. Lighter rainfall is forecast in the immediate adjacent plains with some brief, gusty winds possible due to a large spread in temperature and dew point (limited moisture). Small hail may also be possible further east as the freezing level is lower in the atmosphere this time of year. Coverage of the storms is expected to be greatest over the Palmer Ridge and Southeast Plains. Westward movement of the cluster of storms will continue into the evening as the vorticity max traverses east. Flooding is not expected today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains:

Upper level cloudiness is expected to break up throughout the afternoon before the next round of scatter storms start to form over the mountains. Best coverage should again be over the Southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains. As storms are pushed into the adjacent plains, a few thunderstorms are possible. Best chance for a thunderstorm will again be east of I-25 and south of Denver. As the cluster of storms move eastward with the shortwave, some light hail and brief, gusty winds are possible. Max 1-hr rain rates up to 0.25 inches (mountains and adjacent plains) are possible with totals up to 0.7 inches further east over the Southeast Plains. Flooding is not expected.

Primetime: 2PM to Midnight

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Northern Mountains, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, Central Mountains:

Cloud cover and a light shower or two are currently present over the higher terrains with very cold temperatures over the valleys. Temperatures are expected to rebound a bit today, though highs will still be a bit shy of climatology. This afternoon, scattered storm coverage is expected to increase over the higher terrains, though rainfall accumulation and areal coverage will decrease from the last couple of days. Max 24-hour totals are expected to be under 0.15 inches over the San Juan and Central Mountains with totals under 0.1 inches over the Northern Mountains. Melting of the snowpack over the San Juan and Central Mountains, rainfall and possibly a little rain on snow from yesterday has smaller creeks at the lower elevations creeping towards or at bankfull. With warmer temperatures the next couple of days, we will be watching this closely. A Flood Advisory was issued yesterday by NWS Pueblo for the Conejos and San Antonio Rivers just east of Antonito when emergency management reported minor flooding. While the flow is expected to remain elevated, flooding is not expected today.

Primetime: 2PM to 7PM

Issue Date: Wednesday, May 1st, 2019
Issue Time: 8:25AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Welcome back to the FTB! We’re looking forward to a successful 2019 season serving you.   

Colorado weather has welcomed back the FTB in the most Colorado way possible – a mix of snow and rain to kick off May! Currently a cold front, associated with the upper level trough in the water vapor imagery below, has moved through western Colorado. This has helped provide lift for some moderate rainfall and snow above 8000 ft. Expecting this feature to continue to move east throughout the day, which should confine the rainfall and snow to the higher elevations through this afternoon. Clear skies behind the trough is expected to cause some very cold temperature overnight. A freeze watch is in effect for the lower elevations of the Grand Valley and Northwest Slope through tomorrow morning.

To the east, there are reports of heavy fog over the eastern plains with some light pockets of fog along the Front Range. Expecting the fog to start to break up with the daytime heating, first along the Front Range and then east. As the main feature moves eastward, expect an uptick in shower activity over the Front Range and Southeast Mountains early this afternoon. The adjacent plains and eastern plains may be able to get a bit more daytime heating, which would allow for marginal CAPE to build before the cold front slides through this afternoon. This and the upper level jet are expected to help initiate thunderstorms and widespread, light to moderate rainfall south and east of Denver later this afternoon. A storm or two may become severe over the far Southeast Plains where better dynamics are in place. Post-frontal upslope flow may also produce some light showers along the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains this evening and overnight before the upper level trough exits the state to the east. Flooding is not expected today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains:

Fog early this morning with clearing expected by midday. Increased shower activity is expected from west to east with rain rates up to 0.15 inches/hour over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains. More robust storms are expected over the adjacent plains and southeast Colorado with a severe thunderstorm or two possible over the far Southeast Plains. Moderate rainfall is possible with rain rates up to 0.25 inches/hour (west along the Palmer Divide) and 0.5 inches/hour (east). Scatter storms may persist this evening and overnight along the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains, but rainfall totals are expected to be under 0.2 inches. Flooding is not expected.

Primetime: 1PM to Midnight

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Northern Mountains, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, Central Mountains:

Moderate showers and snow for elevations above 8000 feet are currently ongoing associated with the passing trough and jet stream. Expecting showers to be confined to the higher terrains of the Central and San Juan Mountains through late morning and afternoon as the main feature slides east. Rain rates up to 0.1 inches/hour are possible with totals around 0.5 inches possible over the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains. Freezing conditions are expected over the lower valleys tonight due to clearing skies. A Freeze Watch is in effect through late tomorrow morning. Flooding is not expected today.

Primetime: 8AM to 4PM

 

Get ready, Colorado! The Flood Threat Bulletin will return on Wednesday, May 1st for the 2019 season. To sign up and receive a daily notification of the flood threat to your inbox, please navigate to the “Subscribe” option above.

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