Issue Date: Tuesday, May 1st, 2018
Issue Time: 9:00 AM MDT

Summary:

As the upper-level high built over western states yesterday, drier, low-level air was ushered in from the north and west, resulting in a downtick of thunderstorm coverage and intensity across the state. The bulk of the activity was focused over the mountains, mainly over the higher terrain of the Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Central Mountains, Southwest Slope, and San Juan Mountains. Due to the intrusion of dry air, precipitation rates were lessened overall, but enough moisture was able to hang on across the southern third of the state to result in periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall. The only heavy rainfall report of the day came from 3 miles S of Trimble (La Plata County), where 0.7 inches of rainfall was observed. This occurred very near, but fortunately not directly over, the 416 Fire burn area.

Aside from the mountains, a few isolated thunderstorms developed over the Raton Ridge and far Southeast Plains, where enough moisture was available for daytime heat to work its magic. After sunset, a weak disturbance passed over Southeast Colorado, kicking off a concentrated collection of showers/thunderstorms over the southern Front Range, southern Urban Corridor, Southeast Mountains, and far western sections of the Southeast Plains.

No flash flooding was reported yesterday. For a look at precipitation estimates in your area, please see our State Precipitation Map below.

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Issue Date: Friday, July 13, 2018
Issue Time: 09:25 AM MDT

Summary:

Low-level moisture increased quite a bit across the state yesterday with the upper ridge to the east. This helped provided thunderstorms with greater rainfall intensity and coverage. The surface low over eastern Colorado also brought the thunderstorm threat back to the eastern portion of the state including the plains by pulling in moisture from the east. By noon, storms began to fire over the higher terrains with the best coverage over the Northern Mountains, and Palmer Ridge/Front Range region. A secondary set of storms set up along a convergence boundary over the eastern plains. Outflow boundaries from the storms to the west help increase the activity along the boundary by early evening. Over Kit Carson County, 2.5 inches of rain fell as the boundary was nearly stationary for a couple of hours. A CoCoRaHS station in the area recorded 2.10 inches of rain. A downburst was reported over Logan County that uprooted numerous power poles with winds estimated between 80 and 90 mph. A brief tornado was also reported near Pueblo West, but no damage was reported.

Over the mountains, the main receiver of rainfall was the Northern Mountains. Over Larimer County, 2 inches of rain fell according to radar estimates. The San Juan Mountains didn’t quite reach the moisture levels as predicted, but still got a decent wetting. Near Vallecito Dam, 0.77 inches of rain was reported and 0.64 inches of rain fell 10mi SE of Pagosa Springs over a 30 minute span. One areal flood advisory was issued at 3PM for Ouray, but other than mild field ponding, no flooding was reported on Thursday.

To see how much precipitation fell in your area, scroll down to the State Precipitation Map below.

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Issue Date: Thursday, July 12th, 2018
Issue Time: 9:30 AM MDT

Summary:

The elongated ridge shifted towards the north and east, allowing a mid-level low to retrograde westward into the state, bringing with it a bit of mid-level support that increased thunderstorm coverage yesterday. This additional support, along with a small pocket of moisture that travelled alongside it, allowed for scattered showers and thunderstorms to dot the Southeast Plains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge, in addition to the continued scattered showers/thunderstorms over the High Country.

Moisture upticked slightly throughout the day over western Colorado, allowing activity to get wetting rains to the surface more efficiently, which led to moderate rainfall underneath stronger storms. This increased efficiency caused problems over the highly-sensitive 416 Fire burn scar, where it led to mud flows and debris slides along Highway 145 between Mile Markers 76 and 77.

Overall, shower/thunderstorm coverage peaked during the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing across most areas after sunset. A few lingering showers continued across portions of the Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, and San Juan Mountains into the early morning hours. For a look at precipitation estimates in your area, please see our State Precipitation Map below.

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Issue Date: Wednesday, July 11th, 2018
Issue Time: 9:30 AM MDT

Summary:

In what was generally a persistence forecast from Monday, Tuesday did see subtle changes that led to an uptick in showers/thunderstorms across the High Country. In particular, a slight increase in precipitable water provided the fuel needed for a few more thunderstorms and their ability to bring wetting rains to the surface. Showers/thunderstorms initiated over mountain ridges around lunchtime as orographic lift teamed up with daytime heat to drive development, drifting over adjacent lower elevations with time, while regenerating new activity over the same ridges. Unfortunately, most of the uptick in moisture occurred in the mid-levels, and the low-levels remained much too dry for good rainfall to reach the surface. This had the positive effect of reducing the threat of flash flooding, especially over area burn scars, but had the negative effect of not making a dent in the drought. The peak in shower/thunderstorm coverage occurred during the late afternoon/early evening, with activity diminishing after sunset and only a few lingering showers over the San Juan Mountains, Southwest Slope, and Northwest Slope into the early morning hours. There’s not much to say about the weather east of the mountains – it was hot and dry, continuing the theme of July so far.

No flash flooding was observed yesterday. For a look at precipitation estimates in your area, please see our State Precipitation Map below.

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