Issue Date: Thursday, June 7, 2018
Issue Time: 10:15AM MDT
— A LOW flood threat has been issued for portions of the Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge and Southeast Plains
Colorado continues to reside under the persistent ridge pattern once again today. This means that for most of the state, dry air will continue to be entrained from the southwest and will limit rainfall chances to the east of the Continental Divide. The 416 fire in Durango continues to burn out of control with no chance of rainfall again this afternoon. Currently a ripple in the 500mb flow is moving over the San Juan and Central Mountains, which is producing cloud cover over the higher terrains. This will move east throughout the morning and dry air will move in behind it yielding nearly clear skies for this afternoon and above average temperatures. The disturbance that brought heavy rainfall to Yuma County last night is currently over KS and will continue to move east throughout the morning.
Moisture is expected to return to the eastern plains again today with S/SE low-level flow. The moisture axis for this afternoon is marked in green below. West of this line, thunderstorms and showers are expected to be more isolated in coverage with the best chance for measurable precipitation over the Palmer Ridge and southern Front Range. However, dew points in the in the low 30Fs will cause more gusty winds than measureable rainfall. As storms move east of this line, high CAPE values, increased moisture and decent shear will combine to produce another afternoon and evening of severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature today, but expecting storms to produce strong outflow boundaries that may trigger additional storms in the area. With storm motion to the E/SE at 10-15 knots, local heavy rainfall is possible near the CO/KS border this evening similar to last night. Threats include large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter), winds gust of 60 mph, street flooding and field ponding. A Low flood threat has been issued for portions of the Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge and Southeast Plains. For more information on rain rates and timing, please see the zone-specific forecast discussions below.
Today’s Flood Threat Map
For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.
Zone-Specific Forecasts:
Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrains this afternoon. The best coverage will be over the Southern Front Range and Palmer Ridge intersect. Rain rates up to 0.7 inches/hour are possible with the stronger storms. All storms west of the moisture line will produce gusty winds. East, max 1-hour rain rates up to 2 inches are possible near the CO/KS border. Threats include heavy local rainfall, large hail and strong gusts. Storms should move into KS by 1AM. A Low flood threat has been issued.
Primetime: 3PM – 1AM
San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, Northern Mountains, Southwest Slope, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope:
Southwest flow continues to pull in dry air under the ridge, which squashes any chance for rainfall this afternoon. Temperatures continue to be well above normal with high temperatures reaching the mid-90Fs for the lower elevations. Winds are expected to only reach 10-15 mph this afternoon, which should aid in preventing rapid growth of the 416 fire. There is no flood threat today.
