Issue Date: 6/9/2016
Issue Time: 9:48 AM
A LOW FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR A PORTION OF THE LOS PINOS RIVER IN LA PLATA COUNTY.
Current water vapor imagery shows that yesterday’s disturbance has shifted east over the Great Plains and upper-level ridging is building in from the west. This change in the upper-levels overhead will bring about a much warmer and dryer day than the last few. Temperatures are expected to above average statewide, with a few locations as much as 10-15 degrees above normal.
Even so, there will be enough lingering moisture and daytime heating to support a few isolated-to-widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. The best coverage of this activity will occur over/near the higher terrain where daytime heating will break through the cap. Rain rates will generally be low, and no flash flood threats are warranted. The primary threats from any shower/thunderstorm activity over/near the higher terrain will be small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The one area to watch will be the far southeast plains/eastern Raton Ridge, where there will be just enough upper-level support overtop sufficient instability/moisture to produce isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms near the state border. Otherwise, the area will be mostly sunny and hot, much like the rest of the plains. For more details, please see the zone-specific discussions below.
Today’s Flood Threat Map
For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.
Zone-Specific Forecasts
Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge:
Mostly sunny and hot will be the name of the game today, minus a few isolated showers/thunderstorms for locations near the higher terrain. The Raton Ridge will see the most activity, relatively speaking. Eastern portions of the Raton Ridge could see an isolated stronger thunderstorm for reasons outlined above. Maximum rain rates are as follows:
Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, and western Raton Ridge: 0.2-0.5 inches/hour
Palmer Ridge: 0.4-0.6 inches/hour
Eastern Raton Ridge: 0.6-1.2 inches/hour
Timing: Noon – 11 PM
Southeast Plains:
Mostly sunny and hot for most, with a few isolated showers/thunderstorms. For portions of the Southeast Plains near the higher terrain, rain rates will be fairly low with the primary threats being gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. Eastern portions of the region, including Baca, Prowers, Bent, Las Animas, and Kiowa counties, will see an isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorm or two this afternoon/evening. The main threats from these storms will be large hail and gusty winds, with brief periods of heavy rainfall. Maximum rainfall rates are as follows:
Western Portions of the Southeast Plains: 0.2-0.5 inches/hour
Eastern Portions of the Southeast Plains: 1.2-1.8 inches/hour
Timing: 1 PM – Midnight
Front Range, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, Southeast Mountains, and San Luis Valley:
Isolated-to-scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to break up the otherwise mostly sunny and hot day. Most of the activity will remain anchored to the higher terrain, but a few storms will drift over valleys. The Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, and Southeast Mountains will see the most storms as compared to the other regions.
The best coverage will occur during peak heating, with storms diminishing quickly after sunset. Overall, the primary threats will be gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. Maximum rain rates will be 0.25-0.6 inches/hour.
Timing: 11 AM – 10 PM
