Issue Date: 6/8/2016
Issue Time: 10:15 AM
A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN MIGUEL RIVER IN MONTROSE AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES.
A LOW FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOS PINOS RIVER IN LA PLATA COUNTY AND GORE CREEK/BLACK GORE CREEK IN EAGLE COUNTY.
One more unsettled day ahead before the upper-level ridge takes over and brings a drying trend to Colorado. For today, though, the weak disturbance aloft will combine with sufficient moisture and instability to kick off another period of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will be less than previous days across much of the state, so no flood threat is warranted. You can see the decrease in moisture well on the IPW chart below. Pueblo (pink line), Boulder (blue line), and Schriever AFB (red line) have all taken fairly significant dips since yesterday evening. Grand Junction (green line), on the other hand, has seen an increase in moisture. This, plus orographic support, portends the reality of today; the most numerous showers/thunderstorms will occur over the higher terrain, with lesser coverage over the lower elevations of eastern Colorado.
Aside from the showers and thunderstorms, the rising rivers in the High Country deserve some attention. Above average temperatures have accelerated snowmelt, bringing some low-lying flooding conditions to portions of Montrose, San Miguel, La Plata, and Eagle Counties. The San Miguel River (moderate flood threat) should fall back below flood stage by later this afternoon. These areas have been highlighted in the flood threat map below.
Today’s Flood Threat Map
For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.
Zone-Specific Forecasts
Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. The atmosphere has dried a bit and instability values are down, as well, so storms will be less intense than previous days. Westerly winds will also promote low-level drying over the Urban Corridor and western portions of the Northeast Plains, which means the primary threat will shift to gusty winds/microburst potential.
Elsewhere, the stronger storms will produce hail and brief periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall. Maximum rain rates are as follows:
Urban Corridor and Raton Ridge: 0.6-1.2 inches/hour
Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Palmer Ridge: 1.2-1.8 inches/hour
Timing: Noon – 10 PM
Front Range, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, Southeast Mountains, and San Luis Valley:
Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected, mainly over the higher terrain. The best coverage of storms will occur over the Northern Mountains, Front Range, Central Mountains, and San Juan Mountains as they will be underneath the best upper-level support while benefitting from orographic influences. Elsewhere, more isolated coverage is expected. The primary threats from stronger storms will be small hail, lightning, and gusty winds, along with brief moderate rainfall. Maximum rain rates are as follows:
Front Range, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, and San Juan Mountains: 0.6-0.9 inches/hour
Southeast Mountains: 0.2-0.6 inches/hour
Southwest Slope, Grand Valley, and Northwest Slope: 0.4-0.8 inches/hour
Timing: 11 AM – 11 PM
