Issue Date: 5/02/2015
Issue Time: 10:15 AM
NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.
Moisture is about 60% of what it was 24 hours ago (see IPW image below), and this will lead to a day filled with more sunshine and less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Three things will provide the “ignition” for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening; daytime heat, a weak mid-level disturbance, and a surface trough over the Northeast and Southeast Plains.
The daytime heat and weak mid-level disturbance will be present as trigger mechanisms statewide, while the surface trough across the Northeast and Southeast Plains will provide additional support for a few stronger thunderstorms to develop. In general, today’s showers and thunderstorms will be of the weaker variety, producing mainly gusty winds and light rain, as most of the moisture lives above 600 mb (3 km above ground level). Where slightly more moisture can hang on, near the CO/KS border, small hail and brief moderate-to-heavy rain will be possible.
Today’s Flood Threat Map
For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.
Zone-Specific Forecasts
Urban Corridor, Front Range, and Palmer Ridge:
Today will feature more sun than yesterday, with storms being more isolated than yesterday. Expect much more gusty winds than rain from any storm, with drier air in place in the low-levels. Maximum rain rates will be in the 0.25-0.6 inch/hour range. Brief, small hail will be possible over the Urban Corridor and Palmer Ridge, as instability increases to respectable levels through the afternoon due to daytime heating.
Timing: Noon – 8 PM
Northeast Plains and Southeast Plains:
The same trend will follow these regions as the regions noted above, with the noted exception that a surface trough will provide an additional focus for isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms to develop. A bit more moisture will be available to storms in these regions, so rain rates will be maximized around 1-1.5 inches/hour. Small hail will be present with the stronger storms, perhaps reaching severe criteria at 1 inch in diameter. Gusty winds (40-55 mph) and lightning will be the main threats with any strong thunderstorms.
Timing: 3 PM – 10 PM
Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, San Juan Mountains, Northwest Slope, Southwest Slope, Grand Valley, and San Luis Valley:
Mostly sunny, with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Activity will mainly be confined to the higher terrain, as weak steering winds won’t be able to “push” storms over the valleys. Rain rates will be low, in the 0.2-0.6 inch/hour range, due to relatively dry air in the lower levels. Gusty winds and lightning will be the main threats with any storm activity.
Timing: Noon-10 PM, with a few weak showers lingering until midnight.
