Issue Date: 09/01/2015
Issue Time: 8:36 AM
NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.
Subtropical moisture remains across Colorado and will provide another afternoon/evening of showers and thunderstorms. The moisture, however, is less than yesterday and the environment is lacking overall support for strong thunderstorms, especially across flood prone areas (i.e., burn scars, steep terrain, low-lying urban areas). This will keep most showers and thunderstorms, especially those over and near the higher terrain, to “garden-variety” status, producing brief light-to-moderate rainfall, gusty winds, and a bit of lightning.
The one exception to this rule will be across a portion of the Southeast Plains, namely Cheyenne, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, Otero, Las Animas, and Baca counties) where a bit more instability will be present this afternoon/evening. An isolated thunderstorm or two will develop in this environment and be capable of locally moderate rainfall, small hail, and strong outflow winds (up to 45-50 mph). No flash flooding is expected from these storms; Inverted-V atmospheric profiles are expected and should cut down realized rainfall rates at the surface.
Otherwise, the big story of today will be another day of above-average temperatures. Mother Nature has not quite gotten the memo that today is the first day of Meteorological Fall.
Today’s Flood Threat Map
For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.
Zone-Specific Forecasts
Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Northwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, and Southwest Slope:
Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the higher terrain. Adjacent valleys will see a few storms move overhead during the evening hours as they drift off of the mountain ridges. Maximum rain rates will be 0.7-1.0 inches/hour, but most rates will be less than that, in the 0.3-0.6 inches/hour range.
Timing: 11 AM – 8 PM with a couple of weak showers lingering until midnight.
Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge:
The weather story today will be above-average temperatures and isolated thunderstorms, with the best relative coverage near the mountains and along the preferred terrain of the Palmer Ridge and Raton Ridge. Garden-variety is the term that comes to mind when discussing the impacts of today’s thunderstorms; maximum rain rates will break down like this:
Urban Corridor, western portions of the Southeast Plains/Northeast Plains/Palmer Ridge/Raton Ridge: 0.5-0.8 inches/hour
Eastern portions of the Northeast Plains/Southeast Plains/Palmer Ridge/Raton Ridge: 1.0-1.5 inches/hour
Timing: Noon – 9 PM, with an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two lingering across the far eastern plains until midnight.
