Issue Date: Saturday, July 10th, 2021
Issue Time: 8AM MDT
— Flooding is NOT expected today
The departing trough to the east (orange X’s) dropped a cold front across the state overnight, so it’s a cooler start to the day for the northern tier of the state. There was also a slight uptick in dew points behind the front over eastern Colorado. PW at Denver rose to 0.82 inches, but this morning’s sounding also shows a strong inversion (cap) at 600mb. This should help to keep rainfall chances close to nil this afternoon and evening over the area. Best chance for a sprinkle or two will be over the Southeast Mountains near the southern border.
It’s a smokey start over the lower elevations of western Colorado. Near surface smoke is forecast to increase across the Northern/Central Mountains this afternoon due to the location of High (northerly surface winds). As the High moved slightly to the west over the last 24-hours, a much drier air mass has moved into the region. PW at Grand Junction has dropped to 0.30 inches, which means rainfall is not expected this afternoon. Although weaker than yesterday, there’s still a small pocket of weak moisture across the southern border. This may allow for an isolated, weak storm or two to develop over the southern San Juan Mountains near the border. Flooding is NOT forecast today.
Today’s Flood Threat Map
For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.
Zone-Specific Forecasts:
Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Northern Mountains, Grand Valley, Northwest Slope & Southwest Slope:
Another Heat Advisory has been issued, but this time it’s for the lower elevations of the Southwest Slope (SW corner of the state). High temperatures are expected to reach just over 100F over this region, which is also true of the Grand Valley. Slightly cooler highs in the low to mid-90Fs are forecast over the Northwest Slope and mountain valleys. So, it remains hot over these regions. A stray storm or two could pop over the southern San Juan Mountains near the border, and rain rates up to 0.25 inches per hour would be possible. Flooding is NOT forecast.
Primetime: 2PM to 7PM
Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, San Luis Valley, Urban Corridor & Southeast Plains:
The mid-level inversion should keep a lid on the chances for convection this afternoon. Some afternoon cloud cover is forecast over the mountains, which will help provide a little relief from the heat. These cloud bases may produce a sprinkle or two (south), but virga is the more likely scenario. A stray storm way wander into the Northeast Plains from Nebraska, but the likelihood of this happening is low. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.40 inches would be possible. Overall, it should be a beautiful day over eastern Colorado and the San Luis Valley. Flooding is NOT forecast.
