Issue Date: Wednesday, June 12th, 2019
Issue Time: 9:40AM MDT

–A LOW flood threat is issued for Saguache Creek just west of Saguache through this afternoon

Beautiful start to the morning across the state with some mid-level clouds present over the Urban Corridor and Raton Ridge areas. Expecting those clouds to burn off quickly this morning with the increase in sunshine. Today, Colorado will once again be under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft. The jet is currently located over the Northeast Plains and is causing an increase in surface winds over the area (15-20 mph range). Forecasting this feature to push to the east by later this afternoon, which should reduce surface winds. Northerly surface winds this morning are expected to turn more easterly over the immediate adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. This will help kick off some storms over the higher terrains as well as some mid-level support moving in from the west. Dew points will be greatest over the southeast quadrant of the state (40°Fs). Therefore, expect afternoon storms over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains with cloud cover elsewhere due to the lower dew points. With the northwesterly flow aloft, storms will move into the adjacent plains and favor the higher elevation regions of the Palmer and Raton Ridges. Upper level dynamics may allow a weak thunderstorm or two to survive over the western Southeast Plains this evening, but activity should end by midnight.

Melting continues today, which will affect higher elevation rivers over southwest Colorado, so the Flood Watch for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley continues. A Low flood threat (and Flood Warning) has been issued for Saguache Creek west of Saguache through this afternoon due to emergency management flooding reports from yesterday. A Low threat has also been issued for the Rio Grande near Del Norte due to the gage reporting Minor flooding and a Flood Warning issued by NWS this morning. See below for more details.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

 

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains:

Another day of average high temperatures is expected. Under northwest flow aloft, a dry air mass remains in place. Slightly better moisture will be over the southeast quadrant of the state (west portion). Therefore, the best chance for afternoon storms will be over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains. Max 1-hr rain rates should remain under 0.5 inches with most storms producing totals around 0.3 inches due to the high-bases. All storms that track over the Spring Creek burn area should be monitored closely, although 15-20 mph storm movement should limit the flood threat. Activity will likely spill into the adjacent plains over the Raton and Palmer Ridges with a couple of weak thunderstorms possible over the Southeast Plains through midnight.

Increased flows over the Arkansas west of Pueblo will also be monitored closely over the next week as a couple of gages remain in the Action stage. Not expecting any of these gages to reach the Minor flooding mark today, but Canon City could have some minor flooding issues by this weekend. The Arkansas gage near Avondale has gone back below Minor flood stage. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest on flood warnings, advisories and statements and follow the daily FTB.

Primetime: 3PM to Midnight

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley:

The dry air mass remains over western Colorado before PW values start to increase tomorrow. So not forecasting rainfall again this afternoon with the exception of a brief shower over the eastern San Juan Mountains near the Continental Divide. There will be an increase in cloud from west to east with the approaching shortwave marked in the water vapor imagery this morning. Highs today will be similar to yesterday.

Melting of the high elevation snowpack will continue today and a Flood Watch continues for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. A Low flood threat (and Flood Warning) has been issued for Saguache Creek west of Saguache through this afternoon due to emergency management flooding reports from yesterday. A Low threat (and Flood Warning) has also been issued for the Rio Grande near Del Norte due to the gage reporting Minor Flooding. Areal Flood Advisories (as of 9AM this morning) are issued for the following: Tomichi Creek at Gunnison, Eagle River at Red Cliff, central Hinsdale County along Williams Creek, Colorado River near the CO/UT state line, Los Pinos River near Bayfield, San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, La Plata River at Hesperus, Mancos River in Montezuma County, Navajo River near Chromo, Animas River at Durango and the Gunnison River above Grand Junction. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest on flood warnings, advisories and statements and follow the daily FTB.

Primetime: 4PM to 9PM

Issue Date: Tuesday, June 11th, 2019
Issue Time: 8:50AM MDT

–A LOW flood threat is issued for portions of the San Antonio/Conejos Rivers, headwaters of the Rio Grande and San Juan Rivers including the Rio Grande near Del Norte and the Arkansas River near Avondale

Colorado will officially be under northwest flow today. This will push weak mid-level energy through the eastern portion of the state, such as the shortwave marked in green below. The Denver sounding showed a PW value of 0.35 inches with only a shallow layer of low level moisture. This should mix out throughout the day and keep showers and weak thunderstorms high-based once again. Therefore, the main threats today will be gusty outflow winds and lightning under the weak thunderstorms. Thunderstorms this afternoon will form along a weak cold front moving south over the eastern plains. With the aid of the left exit region of the jet, expecting storm coverage only over the Northeast Plains. Back to the west over the northern Front Range and Urban Corridor a weak shower or two may be possible, but totals should remain under 0.1 inches.

Melting continues today, which will affect higher elevation rivers over southwest Colorado, so the Flood Watch for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley continues through Wednesday morning. A Low flood threat has also issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande including William Creek upstream from Lake San Cristobal. Additionally, a Low threat has been issued for the Arkansas River near Avondale, which has gone into minor flooding. This will mostly affect lowland areas near Avondale through this weekend.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

 

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains:

High temperatures this afternoon will be comparable to yesterday minus a couple of degrees thanks to a weak cold front dropping south throughout the day. Under northwest flow aloft, only weak thunderstorms and showers are forecast over the Northeast Plains and northern Front Range/Urban Corridor. Max 1-hr rain should remain under 0.1 inches (west) with only slightly higher totals possible over the Northeast Plains. With swift storm movement under the jet and high-bases, totals are expected to remain under 0.3 inches. Gusty winds are also forecast with the jet overhead. Brief gusts up to 25 mph are possible this afternoon with sustained winds in the 10 to 15 knot range.

Increased flows over the Arkansas west of Pueblo will also be monitored closely over the next week as a couple of gages remain in the Action stage. Not expecting any of these gages to reach the minor flooding mark this week. However, the Arkansas gage near Avondale has gone above flood stage and is expected to remain in the Minor flooding stage through this weekend. A Low flood threat has been added to this area. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest on flood warnings, advisories and statements and follow the daily FTB.

Primetime: 3PM to 9PM

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley:

Another dry day is expected with dew points in the mid-20°Fs over western Colorado, so not forecasting rainfall again this afternoon. There will be an increase in cloud cover by mid-afternoon that will fill in from north to south with the northwest flow aloft. Highs today will reach the upper 80°Fs in the valleys, with mid-60°Fs in the high mountain valleys. Mid-elevation stations will likely record highs in the 70°Fs such as Steamboat and Pagosa Springs.

Above average temperatures will continue the melting of the high elevation snow. The Flood Watch continues for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. A Low flood threat has also been issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande. Areal Flood Advisories (as of this morning) are issued for the following: Central Hinsdale County above Lake San Cristobal along Williams Creek, Colorado River near the CO/UT state line, Animas River near Durango, San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, La Plata River at Hesperus, Manco River near Mancos, the Gunnison River above Grand Junction, Los Pinos River near Bayfield and Eagle River at Red Cliff. At this time, rivers across western Colorado are not forecast to reach flood stage but rather reach bankfull conditions with minor flooding limited to lowland area. Follow the NWS for the latest updates on the daily runoff and river stages.

Issue Date: Monday, June 10th, 2019
Issue Time: 8:45AM MDT

–A LOW flood threat continues for portions of the San Antonio/Conejos Rivers and for the headwaters of the Rio Grande and San Juan Rivers including the Rio Grande near Del Norte.

Mid and upper level flow over the state today will remain westerly, which will hold a dry air mass in place and limit afternoon rainfall activity. Expect the upper flow to transition to the northwest early tonight as the high to our south moves to the west and a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. The sounding in Denver this morning shows a large dry layer in the middle and upper atmosphere and an inversion, which are the main factor limiting the chance for afternoon rainfall. With low level moisture expected to mix out over the majority of the state, expect only partially cloudy skies this afternoon. The exception is over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountain where slightly increased dew points (40°Fs) from surface southerly flow, diurnal flow and energy rotating the high in New Mexico will help sparked isolated showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms are expected to move west initially and then have more southeast movement as the flow changes over. With the high-bases, the main threats will be gusty winds, small hail and lightning. Expect storms to begin dissipate at sundown as instability decreases.

High temperatures will also be on the rise after a cool Sunday. This will continue to melt snow at the higher elevations over southwest Colorado, so the Flood Watch for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley continues. A Low flood threat has also been issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande. I have pulled the Low threat into west in Mineral County due to reports of minor flooding along William Creek upstream from Lake San Cristobal.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley:

Expect high temperatures to jump back up 5-10°F from yesterday. Cloud cover will begin to build over the high terrains this afternoon, but rainfall is only forecast for the Southern Front Range, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge and adjacent eastern plains this afternoon. Max 1-hr rain rates up to 0.6 inches are possible near the Divide with rates dropping to 0.15 inches/hour over the adjacent plains. There is a slight chance for some storms over the eastern San Juan Mountains, which may cause some light rainfall over the San Luis Valley as well. Totals are expected to remain under 0.2 inches (mountains) and 0.1 inches (San Luis Valley). Flooding is not forecast and rain rates near the Spring Creek burn scar should remain under threat criteria. As always, caution should be taken with any thunderstorm that moves over that area.

Increased flows over the Arkansas west of Pueblo will also be monitored closely over the next week as a couple of gages have jumped to the Action stage. Not expecting any of these gages to reach the minor flooding mark this week. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest on flood warnings, advisories and statements and follow the daily FTB.

Primetime: 3PM to 9:30PM

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope:

With dew points in the 20°Fs over the northwest corner, not expecting rainfall this afternoon. There will be an increase in cloud cover by mid-afternoon, but rainfall will be limited to the southern mountains where there is slightly better low level moisture. Warm temperatures will continue the melting of the high elevation snow. The Flood Watch continues for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. A Low flood threat has also been issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande. Areal Flood Advisories (as of this morning) are issued for the following: Central Hinsdale County above Lake San Cristobal along Williams Creek, Colorado River near the CO/UT state line, Animas River near Durango, San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, La Plata River at Hesperus, Manco River near Mancos and the Gunnison River above Grand Junction. Follow the NWS for the latest updates on the daily runoff and river stages.

Issue Date: Sunday, June 9th, 2019
Issue Time: 8:50AM MDT

–A LOW flood threat has been issued for portions of the San Antonio/Conejos Rivers and for the headwaters of the Rio Grande and San Juan Rivers including the Rio Grande near Del Norte.

The cold front is officially through the state, so everyone is waking up to much cooler temperatures. Temperatures in the mountains are as low as freezing with 50Fs and 40Fs for the lower elevations. More moisture to the east means cloud cover. Don’t expect it to last all day as dry air behind the trough will work its way over the state and mix out the shallow moisture by this afternoon. Depending when this occurs, it will affect high temperatures. Overall, highs today will drop ~15-20°F from yesterday.

There is still some ongoing, light precipitation over the northern mountains, but this isn’t expected to last past the morning hours. Minus some isolated, weak CAPE values along the Continental Divide this afternoon, a stable air mass will be over the state thanks to a strong inversion at the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, there will be a break in rainfall activity today. Cloudiness will increase over the southwest corner of the state this afternoon, and cool overnight temperatures are forecast statewide once again. NWS Grand Junction has a Freeze Watch is in place over the Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains through Monday morning.

Despite cooler temperatures, snow will continue to melt at the higher elevations over southwest Colorado, so the Flood Watch for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley continues. A Low flood threat has also been issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest on flood warnings, advisories and statements.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope:

Still quite a dry air mass over the western portion of Colorado, therefore, not forecasting rainfall this afternoon. Increased cloudiness can be expected over the San Juan and Central Mountains later today. Cooler temperatures may slow down the efficiently of the melting rates today, but melting will occur nonetheless. The Flood Watch continues for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. A Low flood threat has also been issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande. Areal Flood Advisories (as of this morning) are issued for the following: Central Hinsdale County above Lake San Cristobal along Williams Creek, Colorado River near the CO/UT state line, Animas River near Durango, San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, La Plata River at Hesperus, Manco River near Mancos and the Gunnison River above Grand Junction. Follow the NWS for the latest updates on the daily runoff and river stages.

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains:

Cool temperatures today with highs in the mountains reaching the 50Fs. Temperatures over the adjacent plains will reach the 60Fs with 70F possible over the Southeast Plains. Cloud cover will begin to burn off early this afternoon, so expect pleasant temperatures to round out the weekend. Rainfall is not forecast, though a couple of light showers near the Continental Divide may be possible. Flooding is not forecast.