–A LOW<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for the Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Northeast Plains and the Arkansas River at Avondale<\/em><\/p>\n
Upper level moisture is returning to the western half of the state after a few days of dry, hot air coming in from the southwest. The high pressure ridge to our east has begun to break down as a series of shortwaves moved across the central and high plains yesterday. A weak shortwave trough<\/span> is expected to move over the area today (yellow line below), which will provide upper level forcing for severe thunderstorms<\/span> over the eastern plains this afternoon and into tonight. Weak upper level moisture will return from the Pacific (blue in WV imagery below), but dry surface conditions west of the Continental Divide<\/span> will keep chances of precipitation very low over this area. Surface moisture over the northeast corner of the state is high this morning, as indicated by fog and cloud cover. This is due to yesterday’s storms and the passage of a cold front overnight. There is still a strong surface moisture gradient present from Denver eastward with PW<\/span> values over an inch on the eastern plains. Moisture will stick around and increase slightly throughout the day.<\/p>\n The low pressure system that brought us our weather yesterday remains over the southeast corner of the state this morning, bringing in deep, moist air from the south and east. Dewpoints were measured in the 50°Fs and 60°F east of the foothills this morning. There is a tight temperature and moisture gradient over the Palmer Ridge (orange line) as cloud cover, fog, and advection<\/span> of cooler temperatures from the north have prevented temperatures from climbing rapidly. Surface heating and warm air advection<\/span> is expected to mix out the cloud layer by early afternoon, which will allow temperatures and instability to increase. Severe thunderstorms<\/span> are expected to form this afternoon over the Urban Corridor and Palmer Ridge and move eastward over the eastern plains early this evening. Storms are also possible over the northern border that will form and move off the Cheyenne Ridge. Storms over the far CO\/KS border may persist overnight with support from the passing shortwave<\/span> and LLJ. This will drop some heavy 2-3 hour rainfall totals, which could cause some flooding issues. Storm motion is forecast to be 10 to 15 mph to the east and back building\/trailing storms will allow for some decent 2 to 3 hour accumulations. Therefore there is a Moderate threat issued for the southern Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge and portions of the Southeast Plains. A Low threat is issued for the majority of eastern Colorado. The Low threat is extended back to the Southeast Mountains to include the recent burn areas (Junkins, Hayden Pass and Spring Creek). Threats for today include heavy rainfall, large hail up to 2 inches diameter, strong wind gusts and a possible tornado.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/FTB_20190705_WV-1.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n