–A LOW <\/strong>flood threat is issued for Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Urban Corridor, Raton Ridge and Southeast Plains. This includes the Junkins and Hayden Pass burn areas.<\/em><\/p>\n Heavy rainfall returns to the forecast to kick off the first day of July with a Moderate flood threat issued. Southwest flow aloft will begin to turn more westerly throughout the day as the upper level ridge begins to break down. This is in part due to the passage of a shortwave<\/span> rotating around the high over Mexico. This shortwave<\/span> will help spark more widespread<\/span> showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The current pattern continues to stream in moisture at the mid and upper levels as well, so this will help increase rainfall efficiency with storms this afternoon and evening. In the low level water vapor image below, a very moist air mass is in place over eastern Colorado as shown by the dew points<\/span> (green lines). Additional moisture will get pulled in over eastern Colorado today with a surface low, which is currently over the eastern plains, siphoning in higher low level moisture (increasing dew points<\/span>) from the south and east. There is no sounding at Denver this morning, but models and nearby soundings indicate PW<\/span> values around 1 inches will be present over the Urban Corridor by this afternoon as storms move off the high terrains. As expected, values increase to the east with PW<\/span> around 1.25 inches over the eastern plains. A weak cold front will produce a wind shift over the Palmer Ridge area and east, which will likely produce convergence for a second set of storms over the eastern plains. Storms to the north of the front will have increased moisture, so higher rain rates are anticipated over this area. Storms over the far eastern plains may become severe with the main threats being heavy rainfall, strong winds and large hail. Back over western Colorado, afternoon storms are forecast for the San Juan Mountains and south Central Mountains, but there is no threat with PW<\/span> values max out around 0.70 inches.<\/p>\n Slow steering winds under the ridge will allow storms today to produce very heavy rainfall over eastern Colorado. Storm motion is expected to be to the southeast at 10-15 mph to the west, and nearly stationary storms are forecast over the eastern plains. Outflow boundaries<\/span> from activity will likely kick off additional storms in the moisture rich environment. This evening, it looks like an MCS<\/span> will form over the eastern plains and last through the overnight hours, which will continue the heavy rainfall threat over this area through tomorrow (early) morning.<\/p>\n
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