![\"ThreatTimeline_06182015\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/ThreatTimeline_06182015.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummertime is finally here in Colorado, with temperatures continuing to climb and sunshine begging for outdoor activities. All of this good news makes the FTO easier, and harder, at the same time. But how can things be easier and harder at the same time? Put simply, as long as the southwestern high-pressure ridge is in control, the forecast becomes more of a persistence forecast, with each day seeing a majority of sunshine and warmth. However, this also makes it more difficult on the forecaster to identify in the extended time-frame when disturbances will break down that ridge, how much moisture will be available, and will there be any surface fronts to focus heavy rain\/stronger thunderstorms? With all of that said, in this 15-day FTO period, there are two “events” to focus our discussion upon…<\/p>\n
- Event #1: Saturday (06-20-2015) through Monday (06-22-2015)\n
- This event was identified in Monday’s FTO as being uncertain with regards to the track of an upper-level disturbance and the amount of moisture available. All of that has come into better focus, and the answers are 1) No upper-level disturbance will be present, and 2) There will not a significant amount of moisture available, either. Two weak surface cool fronts are the culprit.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n
- Event #2: Wednesday (06-24-2015) through Sunday (06-28-2015)\n
- This event is much like Event #1, with no upper-level disturbance being present to bring about widespread<\/span> showers and thunderstorms. Instead, this event takes place under the upper-level ridge and is the result of that ridge shifting eastward, bringing moist, southwesterly flow back into Colorado. This event has the looks of a “monsoon<\/span>-type” moisture surge, but at this time how much moisture will accompany the surge is in question.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<\/ul>