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<\/a><\/p>\nOnly one event for this FTO. The low pressure system shown in the water vapor imagery below dips south and becomes cut off from the main flow through the middle of next week. This will allow a ridge to begin to build back to the northwest and increase high temperatures statewide. Lower elevations will reach the 80Fs by Sunday and stick around into next week. Daily showers are expected over the higher terrains during Event #1 with on and off periods of severe weather possible over the eastern plains. For the most part, widespread<\/span> flooding is not anticipated. However, increased PW<\/span> values over the eastern plains on Sunday and Monday may allow for some heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms<\/span>. Small movements of the low will change 500mb flow between westerly and southwesterly during this period, which will increase and decrease the coverage of thunderstorms each afternoon. Finally, the low starts to slowly move through the state from the south during the middle of next week, which should bring an increase in rainfall and coverage.<\/p>\n The GEFS Precipitable Water<\/span> forecasts for Denver (left) and Grand Junction (right) below show the long-term normal slowly increasing once again. Climatologically, there are quick increases and decreases in daily PW<\/span> during this time of year, which is exactly what the plumes indicate below. By Sunday, PW<\/span> values increase across eastern Colorado with a slight eastward shift of the ridge. This uptick in moisture will likely allow storms to move off the mountains into the adjacent plains during the afternoon starting on Saturday (with the main threat Sunday) and increase precipitation coverage over the mountains. With slower storm motion and an uptick in moisture by Sunday, storms that track near burn scars should be monitored closely. Daily details for rain rates can be found in the FTB. Not quite the same return in moisture for western Colorado, but westerly flow transitioning to SW flow on Sunday will likely increase moisture over the southwest corner of the state, which in turn, will increase the coverage of afternoon, diurnally driven storms over the San Juan Mountains. Quite a bit of spread in both PW<\/span> plumes below by next week due to the small differences in the placement of the low by each ensemble member. How it drifts around southern California and the desert southwest during this period is not well known.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n