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<\/a><\/p>\nBefore starting the FTO, we’re going to take a quick look at August precipitation and temperature compared to normal across the state. The image below shows the Northwest Slope and Southeast Plains receiving quite a bit of rainfall. The more than average Northwest Slope rainfall was likely due to multiple systems clipping the northern border, while the above average precipitation over Baca and Las Animas was due to a couple systems that dropped heavy rainfall. Temperatures for August (not shown) were below average over eastern Colorado, which makes a lot of sense due to the active weather pattern and lots of mornings with a stratus deck. Western Colorado was above average with the Grand Valley, Southwest Slope and western Central Mountains 3-4F above normal.<\/p>\n
The second image below shows the departure from normal precipitation from June 1st<\/sup> – August 31st<\/sup>, which covers the main portion of the monsoon<\/span> season. Despite above average precipitation over the Northwest Slope in August, overall precipitation is 1 to 3 inches below normal for the season. That’s likely due to not too many monsoon<\/span> moisture surges making it that far north. Generally, and discussed before, it was a slow monsoon<\/span> season for western Colorado. There were only a couple classic monsoon<\/span> setups, which is why precipitation is about 3 to 4 inches below normal in these areas. Over eastern Colorado, Gulf of Mexico moisture was present more from June through August (comparatively), thus there are some pockets of above normal precipitation for the season. Overall, the Southeast Mountains and Front Range (along with all mountain areas) were quite dry, which helped support an active fire season.<\/p>\n The broad upper-level trough<\/span> mentioned in Monday’s FTO continues to influence the weather over Colorado and is marked in the water vapor imagery below. The extremely dry air has started to make its way into AZ and Mexico, which will come into play next week. Overall, still experiencing some weak steering winds, which paired with high low-level moisture of the state has caused a couple of days of heavy rainfall. For Friday into Saturday (Event #1), the upper-level trough<\/span> begins to move east and the Colorado light northwesterly flow aloft becomes much stronger. This, paired with a bit more dry air, will keep flood chances low this weekend. On Saturday into Sunday, some residual moisture under the ridge will likely spark some overnight showers associated with the passing trough<\/span> in the mountains and then another round of afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrains.<\/p>\n Westerly flow takes over on Monday as a weak ridge\/zonal<\/span> pattern begins to build over the state. Expecting some cooler temperatures to start the work week as cold front passes through the state behind the trough<\/span>. Downsloping<\/span> winds aloft will promote drying through the start of next week and start to push the higher moisture east. Mid-week, upper-level flow will turn southwesterly as a positively tilted trough<\/span> builds over the west coast and Pacific Northwest. This will continue to entrain a dry air mass from the southwest (AZ\/NM), so next week should be fairly quiet as far as rainfall. Fire danger will likely increase with higher temperatures and low relative humidity as well. Some stronger surfaces winds over the northwest corner of the state on Wednesday and Thursday could cause critical fire weather<\/span>. Please tune back into the FTO on Monday for more details. The GFS is still showing the west coast trough<\/span> moving through the state next weekend (Event #2), but at this time there is low confidence in this solution as well as with availability of low-level moisture for heavy rainfall.<\/p>\n Low-level moisture drops off quite a bit over eastern Colorado on Friday, with less of a decrease over western Colorado. With this, we should see a downtick in storm activity over the higher terrains with little to no flood threat. With slow steering winds, burn scar flash flooding<\/span> is still a concern over the southern high terrains, so please tune into the FTB tomorrow for a more in-depth analysis. Slight increase in moisture for Saturday night both east and west of the Continental Divide<\/span> associated with the passing trough<\/span>. This should cause an uptick in storm activity and may provide some light overnight precipitation in the mountains. Then, the drying trend begins through next week. Denver returns to more seasonal PW<\/span> values with Grand Junction dropping to below average later in the week. Thus, after Saturday, there is little to no threat for flooding.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n