{"id":8254,"date":"2018-08-30T07:55:18","date_gmt":"2018-08-30T13:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=8254"},"modified":"2018-08-30T07:55:18","modified_gmt":"2018-08-30T13:55:18","slug":"ftb-08-30-2018-critical-fire-weather-returns-to-the-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=8254","title":{"rendered":"FTB 08-30-2018: Critical Fire Weather Returns to the Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday, August 30th, 2018<br>\nIssue Time: 08:00AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash; Flooding is <strong>NOT<\/strong> expected today<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The 500mb high will continue to spin over NM today, which will keep the subtropical moisture to our south once again. Similar to the last couple of days, this will keep flow aloft west\/west southwest flow and continue to entrain a drier air mass, which should keep the chance of storms low again this afternoon. A couple of shortwaves are marked in the water vapor imagery below associated with the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> that is moving over the west coast. While this may aid in a slight moisture increase, the storms that form with convergence over the Palmer\/Cheyenne Ridges and extra lift from the shortwaves will likely produce some gusty winds due to the lack of low-level moisture. The <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> over Utah is expected to help increase the upper-level clouds over the Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge and Northeast Plains this afternoon and overnight. Over the Southeast Plains, weak convergence may spark a couple of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> thunderstorms. With <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;dew points&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The temperature to which a given air parcel must be cooled (at constant pressure and water vapor content) in order for saturation to occur.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>dew points<\/span> below 50F, these storms will likely produce some spotty rainfall with gusty winds.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/wv_20180830.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8255\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/wv_20180830.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"456\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This afternoon stronger upper-level winds will set up along the CO\/WY boarder, which will bring back the chances for some gusty winds to mix down to the surface. Low relative humidity and stronger winds will bring back <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;critical fire weather&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;weather conditions especially conducive to the formation of wildfires; typically strong winds, low relative humidity, and atmospheric instability&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>critical fire weather<\/span> to the northern half of the state. A <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Red Flag&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;weather conditions are extremely conducive to burning and wildfires&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Red Flag<\/span> <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Warning&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;a weather warning is issued when a specific weather event is imminent or occurring&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Warning<\/span> has been issued for the Grand Valley, Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains through 9PM tonight. As anticipated, there is no flood threat forecast for Thursday.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/no_threat.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6157\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/no_threat.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"580\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Southeast Plains, Raton Ridge, Southeast Mountains, Front Range, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Lack of low-level moisture and <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;downsloping&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Refers to the winds that blow from higher elevations down towards lower elevations. As air parcels descend, they warm, which often results in rapid warming of areas near the higher terrains. It also promotes lower relative humidity values and stability, which prevents thunderstorm development.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>downsloping<\/span> winds will limit the chances for rainfall this afternoon. Storms that are able to fire will be high-based once again and produce some gusty winds. The <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> currently moving through Utah will reach the Urban Corridor, Front Range, Palmer Ridge and Northeast Plains by this afternoon. While not much rainfall is expected, there should be enough of an increase in moisture that cloud cover will be on the rise. Max 1-hr rain rates are expected to be 0.05 inches or less. Some <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms are also possible over the southern Southeast Plains with max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.1 inches. Flooding is not expected today.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 3PM &ndash; 8PM<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Grand Valley, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>A tight gradient near the CO\/WY border is expected to mix down some strong winds this afternoon. Gusts between 25-35 mph are forecast. With dry air entrainment from the west and rising high temperatures, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the teens. This means <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;critical fire weather&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;weather conditions especially conducive to the formation of wildfires; typically strong winds, low relative humidity, and atmospheric instability&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>critical fire weather<\/span> will return to the Grand Valley, Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains through this evening. The lack of low-level moisture will again nearly zero out the chances for rainfall over western Colorado. Upper-level cloud cover is expected to increase with the passing shortwaves, so low temperatures tonight may be a couple of degrees higher than they otherwise would be. Flooding is not expected.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday, August 30th, 2018 Issue Time: 08:00AM MDT &mdash; Flooding is NOT expected today The 500mb high will continue to spin over NM today, which will keep the subtropical moisture to our south once again. Similar to the last couple of days, this will keep flow aloft west\/west southwest flow and continue to [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8254"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8256,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8254\/revisions\/8256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}