![\"\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/Threat_Timeline_20180614.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNOTE: This edition of the FTO will be a bit different than previous editions, as this one will focus heavily on the flooding threat posed by Events #1 and #2 over the next 8 days.<\/span><\/p>\n The water vapor imagery below can tell us a lot about the upcoming weather situation, and I have highlighted the main features. The first thing that jumps off the page is circled in red. Formerly Hurricane Bud (now Tropical Storm Bud) is moving nearly due-northward, with its outflow<\/span> moisture already being pulled into Colorado (as indicated by the green arrow). The upper-level low currently centered over the Pacific NW will continue to dig southward towards the Great Basin, enhancing the fetch of moisture from the Pacific into the 4-corners region. These features all set the stage for the High Flood Threat (Event #1) of Friday, June 15th to Sunday, June 17th.<\/p>\n The remnants of Hurricane Bud are the main concern behind the High Flood Threat, as the moisture associated with it will push pockets of precipitable water<\/span> values over an inch across much of Colorado beginning late Friday, and then becoming more widespread<\/span> by Saturday afternoon through Sunday. One inch of precipitable water<\/span> sets off alarm bells due to the precipitation efficiency it promotes from showers and thunderstorms. It will not take much instability to produce moderate-to-heavy rainfall under conditions such as these.<\/p>\n The Burro Fire<\/span> and 416 Fire<\/span> burn areas are of the most concern during this event for a few reasons: 1) They are recent\/ongoing – soil has had no time to recover at all, making them highly susceptible to flash flooding<\/span>, mud flows, and debris slides<\/span>, 2) They are favorably positioned on the south\/southwest facing slopes of the San Juan Mountains, which are expected to be the most heavily impacted by rainfall during this event, and 3) Rain rates as low as 0.25-0.5 inches\/hour will be sufficient to produce the aforementioned threats in, and downstream of, these burn scars. Other High Country burn scars should be monitored, as well (including those in the Southeast Mountains).<\/p>\n Storm Motions, Rain Rates, and Prime Time<\/strong>:<\/p>\n Drier air will begin to move into western Colorado on Sunday afternoon, but enough moisture will likely hang on for scattered<\/span> showers\/thunderstorms over the area.<\/p>\n Saturday and Sunday will be the main days for shower\/thunderstorm activity for eastern Colorado associated with Event #1, as subtropical moisture increases the chances for wetting rainfall and low-level moisture recovers. A frontal passage on Sunday will bring upslope flow to the Front Range and Urban Corridor, so those areas will need to be monitored through the weekend. Eastern Colorado’s main event will be Event #2.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEvent #1<\/strong>: Friday (06-15-2018) through Sunday (06-17-2018): High Flood Threat<\/span><\/h3>\n
<\/a><\/div>\n