![\"Threat_Timeline\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Threat_Timeline.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe transition to the summer season is well underway and, here in Colorado, it marks a particularly challenging time for forecasters. As low-pressure systems become fewer and further in between as compared to winter and spring, much of the forecasting reduces to a smaller, more individualized scale. The hot southwest United States ridge becomes a semi-permanent feature, with smaller disturbances attempting to break into that ridge, and only those disturbances, on average, will bring about an organized flood threat. During this 15 day period, there are two such organized threats in which this FTO will be focused upon.<\/p>\n
- Event #1: Friday (06-05-2015) through Tuesday (06-09-2015)\n
- The upper-level trough<\/span> (marked by the dashed purple line) will continue to deepen across the West Coast tonight and into tomorrow, increasing southwesterly flow across the state. Hurricane Andres, which has now become Tropical Storm Andres (circled in purple), was the primary concern of Monday’s FTO to bring the threat of deep moisture and heavy rain during this period. The trough<\/span> has, in fact, already been drawing the tropical moisture north-northeastward (purple arrow), and will bring it into Colorado starting on Friday.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<\/ul>
- Event #2: Thursday (06-11-2015) through Tuesday (06-16-2015)\n
- The same sort of scenario as Event #1 will play out as Event #2. There are a few differences, though, and those are important to consider going forward. While the evolution of Event #1 was fairly easy to discern by the overall pattern, Event #2 is a bit more “hidden,” so to speak. The upper-level trough<\/span> (marked by the dashed black line) is not expected to deepen as much as the Event #1 trough<\/span>. Instead, it appears to be a bit more transient from west to east, as the overall atmospheric flow pattern becomes more zonal<\/span>. Instead, for this event, all eyes shift towards Hurricane Blanca, circled in black at the bottom of the image. This storm is expected to take a more northward track than Andres, and will look to provide a bigger moisture punch. It will be of utmost importance to monitor Hurricane Blanca and her moisture plume – it holds the key to the threat of heavy rain.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<\/ul>
- Event #2: Thursday (06-11-2015) through Tuesday (06-16-2015)\n
- The upper-level trough<\/span> (marked by the dashed purple line) will continue to deepen across the West Coast tonight and into tomorrow, increasing southwesterly flow across the state. Hurricane Andres, which has now become Tropical Storm Andres (circled in purple), was the primary concern of Monday’s FTO to bring the threat of deep moisture and heavy rain during this period. The trough<\/span> has, in fact, already been drawing the tropical moisture north-northeastward (purple arrow), and will bring it into Colorado starting on Friday.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/li>\n<\/ul>