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<\/a><\/p>\nBefore we get into the extended forecast for the FTO, it would be a good idea to take stock of how the longer time-frame of the drought monitor looks. Even though we’ve had plenty of thunderstorms in the forecast, the long-term picture isn’t good, as shown in the Drought Monitor image below. Moderate or worse drought grips more than 60% of the state, with much of the southern third of Colorado in the Extreme\/Exceptional Drought categories. Unfortunately, the extended forecast that is presented below doesn’t offer much relief for those dealing with the worst of the drought.<\/p>\n
To begin this FTO period, Friday and Saturday (May 25th\/26th) will be marked by warm and mainly dry conditions as a quick ridge builds over the state. A few garden-variety afternoon\/evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain, and drifting over adjacent valleys, are expected as daytime heating and orographic effects play on residual moisture, but they won’t result in much as atmospheric moisture remains limited. Event #1 makes an appearance as the approach of an upper-level low that centers itself over the Great Basin on Sunday, May 27th. It will be in no hurry to go anywhere, and will spin in place for a couple of days before weakening and finally lifting to the north\/northeast on Tuesday, May 29th. At this point in time, the forecast calls for the upper-level low to remain positioned to keep the best moisture and rainfall north and west of Colorado. However, some low-level moisture is expected to return to northeast Colorado as easterly surface flow develops with the emergence of a surface low pressure center over the Southeastern Plains. This event will get a no apparent threat for now, but a shift of the low pressure track to the south\/east of the current forecast position would open Colorado to more rainfall.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n