— LOW<\/strong> flood threat for Southeast Plains and Raton Ridge (along with chance of severe weather)<\/em>
— Timing of flood threat is later than normal, and persists into the overnight hours<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
It has been the center of attention for several days now, and is finally here. As shown in the water vapor image, below, a strong upper-level trough<\/span> has begun to enter Colorado from the west. It is being supported by a large-scale jet stream<\/span> with several embedded jet streaks exceeding 120 mph. Its sensible impact is already being felt in the form of mid-level clouds and scattered<\/span> showers and even thunderstorms west of Continental Divide<\/span>. One key variable is lacking right now, however. Precipitable water<\/span> (PW<\/span>) is only 0.5 inches at Grand Junction and less than that at Denver. However, much moister air resides just across the border into OK and KS with PW<\/span> exceeding 1 inch there. At the surface, a cool front has entered northeast Colorado and is positioned right along the South Platte River valley as of 8AM MDT. With plenty of upper air support, expect this low pressure to intensify this afternoon, drawing in some of this moister air into its warm sector over the Southeast Plains.<\/p>\n In all, we expect isolated<\/span> to scattered<\/span> showers and weak thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity. While coverage will be almost the entire state, the only areas with potential for heavy rainfall will be in the Southeast Plains. Expect a round of thunderstorm associated with peak heating this afternoon, followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening and into the overnight hours as numerous<\/span> upper-level impulse combined with a strong moisture advection<\/span>. There are two areas of concern today. First, in the far southeast part of the state, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and isolated<\/span> flash flooding<\/span>. Severe weather will also be possible. Second, precipitation coverage is expected to increase during the overnight hours across central Colorado. Adequate moisture warrants a Low flood threat for the Hayden Pass fire scar for both short-term (< 1 hour) and medium term (3 hour) rainfall rates.<\/p>\n
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