{"id":6151,"date":"2017-08-28T13:54:37","date_gmt":"2017-08-28T19:54:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=6151"},"modified":"2017-08-31T11:18:48","modified_gmt":"2017-08-31T17:18:48","slug":"fto-08-28-2017-two-precipitation-events-over-next-7-days-but-headline-is-very-warm-mainly-dry-conditions-statewide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=6151","title":{"rendered":"FTO 08-28-2017: Two Precipitation Events Over Next 7 Days, But Headline Is Very Warm &#038; Mainly Dry Conditions Statewide"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Monday, August 28, 2017<br>\nIssue Time: 2PM MDT<br>\nValid Dates: 8\/29-9\/12<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/threat_timeline-6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6153\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/threat_timeline-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"122\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Calmer weather has settled into Colorado, followed a prolonged, very active stretch during most of July and early August. Daily rounds of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> to <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widely scattered<\/span> showers and weak thunderstorms have still persisted especially in climatologically favored regions of the central and southern part of the state. However, heavy rainfall has been <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> and brief, and flooding has not been an issue.<\/p>\n<p>As shown in the water vapor image, below, relatively quiet weather is expected through the entirety of this 15-day Outlook. A seasonably strong ridge is currently positioned over the Great Basin. This is maintaining dry and well above normal temperatures west of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span> and a few <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms in the picture across eastern Colorado. Off the west coast, a <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> embedded in the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;jet stream&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Relatively strong winds concentrated within a narrow stream in the atmosphere. General weather patterns are related closely to the position, strength and orientation of the jet stream.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>jet stream<\/span> is expected to temporarily flatten the ridge and support an increase in precipitation coverage across mainly eastern Colorado; this is identified as Event #1.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/wv_markup-13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6154\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/wv_markup-13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"371\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As shown in the forecasted Precipitation Water plumes, below, the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> passage will cause a brief increase in moisture, especially east of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span>. Short-term heavy rainfall will be possible, along with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> severe weather in far eastern Colorado. However, rainfall rates are expected to stay just below flood threat level. After a rapid warm up following Event #1, a strong high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada, driving a fall cool front across mainly eastern Colorado. This is currently identified as Event #2. Although precipitation coverage and intensity are expected to increase, heavy rainfall is expected to be limited, and flooding is not expected at this time.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/gefs_pw-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6152\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/gefs_pw-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"262\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Finally, it is interesting to note that the lull in <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;monsoon&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;a seasonal wind that brings moisture and rain to the region into which it blows; there is also a dry phase to monsoons, but popular usage refers only to the wet phase; these winds occur in many places around the world, and where they occur they are responsible for a majority of that location&rsquo;s annual precipitation&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>monsoon<\/span> moisture continues across the western slope. Although <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;monsoon&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;a seasonal wind that brings moisture and rain to the region into which it blows; there is also a dry phase to monsoons, but popular usage refers only to the wet phase; these winds occur in many places around the world, and where they occur they are responsible for a majority of that location&rsquo;s annual precipitation&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>monsoon<\/span> surges can occur well into September, chances of heavy rainfall drop off drastically starting in early September. Climatologically speaking, it is much too soon to suggest that the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;monsoon&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;a seasonal wind that brings moisture and rain to the region into which it blows; there is also a dry phase to monsoons, but popular usage refers only to the wet phase; these winds occur in many places around the world, and where they occur they are responsible for a majority of that location&rsquo;s annual precipitation&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>monsoon<\/span> may be finished for western Colorado, but when we look back several weeks from now, this could end up being the truth.<\/p>\n<p>Below we describe each of the two identified precipitation events in more detail.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Event #1: Thursday (8\/31) and Friday (9\/1)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>No Anticipated Flood Threat <\/strong><\/span>as <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> treks across Colorado; upgrade possible<\/p>\n<p>A <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> will move across Colorado on Thursday and Friday, temporarily increasing rainfall coverage and intensity. Highest coverage will be east of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span>. Afternoon and evening showers and weak thunderstorms are expected across the High Country of central and southern Colorado. With the upper-level support, <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> thunderstorms are also expected across the eastern plains. A severe threat, mainly for large hail, will accompany the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> heavy rainfall. Max 1-hour rainfall up to 1 inch (west) and 1.5 inch (east) can be expected. These rates are just below flood threat intensity. However, if slightly more moisture return occurs, an elevated threat could occur on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>By Friday, precipitation chances will scoot further south towards the Southeast Mountains and plains. However, moisture levels are expected to drop and rainfall rates should be limited to 1 inch an hour or less. Flooding is not expected at this time.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/FTO_20170828_e1-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6186\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/FTO_20170828_e1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"504\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Legend.png\" alt=\"Legend\" width=\"94\" height=\"158\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Event #2: Monday (9\/4) through Tuesday (9\/5)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>No Apparent Flood Threat <\/strong><\/span>as front passage likely, but moisture appears to low for heavy rainfall<\/p>\n<p>Guidance is in reasonable agreement today regarding the passage of a strong fall-like cool front starting on Monday, 9\/4. An increase in rainfall coverage is expected mainly east of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span>. However, moisture return appears to be limited, and it is not clear if there will be enough instability to even generate thunderstorms. At this time, precipitation amounts in the 0.25 &ndash; 0.5 inch range are foreseen, and thus a precipitation map is not provided.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Monday, August 28, 2017 Issue Time: 2PM MDT Valid Dates: 8\/29-9\/12 Calmer weather has settled into Colorado, followed a prolonged, very active stretch during most of July and early August. Daily rounds of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> to <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widely scattered<\/span> showers and weak thunderstorms have still persisted especially in climatologically favored regions of the central and [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6151"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6151"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6151\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6187,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6151\/revisions\/6187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}