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<\/a><\/p>\nThis afternoon’s North Pacific water vapor image, below, shows a generally active atmospheric pattern. A strong and elongated jet stream<\/span> is stretched from east of Japan nearly all the way to North America’s west coast. Within this jet stream<\/span> are several embedded disturbances, marked as Event 1\/2 and Event 3. These will provide the mechanisms for disturbed weather across Colorado over the next 15 days. One additional important feature to note is a sprawling high pressure across the western United States. This feature will be hard to displace over the next two weeks and will provide a quick rebound to warm\/hot temperatures after the passage of precipitation events.<\/p>\n The water vapor image acts as a good measure of current conditions. To investigate how this pattern will evolve, we turn to atmospheric weather models for guidance. One guidance tool that we like to use is the Climate Prediction Center’s analog method that essentially finds historical snapshots of conditions that resemble the current model predictions. The image below shows composite anomalies of 500-mb heights, 925-mb air temperature and 925-mb moisture content (specific humidity) centered 8 days from now. The 500-mb anomalies show rather weak features around Colorado with a much more pronounced signal coming in the form of a strong ridge across most of Canada. In fact, models suggest that this ridge will attempt to bulge into the Central Plains surrounded by two low-pressure anomalies in the far western US as well as the eastern US. Both of these disturbances are too far to have direct impact on our weather. Nonetheless, we do expect at least one significant disturbance to penetrate the ridge and provide a multi-day period of inclement weather (Event 1 and 2). After this disturbance passes Colorado, a moderate strength ridge will re-establish itself providing several days of average to above average temperatures. Thereafter, there are indications that the western US low pressure anomaly will progress far enough east to affect Colorado with precipitation chances by late in the forecast period.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n