{"id":3128,"date":"2016-07-18T11:03:59","date_gmt":"2016-07-18T17:03:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=3128"},"modified":"2016-07-18T11:03:59","modified_gmt":"2016-07-18T17:03:59","slug":"ftb-07-18-2016-day-1-of-monsoon-fed-storms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=3128","title":{"rendered":"FTB 07-18-2016: Day 1 of monsoon-fed storms"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: Monday, July 18, 2016
\nIssue Time: 11:00AM MDT<\/p>\n

— MODERATE<\/strong> flood threat for parts of Northeast Plains and Palmer Ridge<\/em>
— MODERATE<\/strong> flood threat for parts of San Juans<\/em>
— LOW<\/strong> flood threat for parts of Grand Valley Southwest Slope and Central Mountains<\/em>
— LOW<\/strong> flood threat for parts of Front Range and Urban Corridor<\/em>
— If necessary, an updated threat map may be posted by 3PM today<\/em><\/p>\n

As expected and shown in the water vapor image, below, the first significant push of monsoonal moisture is currently rounding its way northward into the four corners region. The precipitable water<\/span> (PW<\/span>) in Grand Junction has gone from below 0.4 inches to near 1 inch in about 36 hours. Comparing this morning’s Grand Junction sounding with yesterday mornings (below) undoubtedly shows the increase in moisture. However, most of the increase is currently well above the boundary layer<\/span> and will take most of today to make it downward where it can have an impact on heavy rainfall. Guidance suggests that the southwest part of the state will be most vulnerable to this, especially after convection<\/span> farther southwest organizes into larger segments. A moderate flood threat is warranted.<\/p>\n

While moisture is clearly not a limiting factor today, the atmospheric dynamics are. A strong ridge, an extension of the Bermuda High, continues to stay put or strengthen across the southeast part of the United States. This will play a mainly negative factor in rainfall rates east of the Divide<\/span> by (i) increasing mid-level temperatures (at Denver, mid-level temps have increased by 3-5F over the last 24-hours, and (ii) promoting downsloping<\/span> flow that will tend to limit strong storms in the higher terrain and foothills. Nonetheless, farther east, the high instability will result in at least one round of storms capable of producing very heavy rainfall. A moderate flood threat has been posted.<\/p>\n

\"wv_markup\"<\/a>\"GJT_sounding\"<\/a>Today’s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.<\/p>\n