{"id":2563,"date":"2016-05-31T10:45:05","date_gmt":"2016-05-31T16:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=2563"},"modified":"2016-06-01T09:17:01","modified_gmt":"2016-06-01T15:17:01","slug":"ftb-05-31-2016-scattered-heavy-rainfall-likely-in-the-southeast-plains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=2563","title":{"rendered":"FTB 05-31-2016: Scattered Heavy Rainfall Likely In The Southeast Plains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Tuesday, May 31st, 2016<br>\nIssue Time: 10:40AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash; A LOW flood threat has been issued for the Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains and Southeast Mountains<\/em><\/p>\n<p>This morning&rsquo;s water vapor image, below, shows many players across the Rocky Mountain states and the central US. Of particular important is the surface low-pressure system located over North Dakota. This is associated with an attendant <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> that extends southward into central Colorado. Also associated with this low is a moist cool front that has entered Colorado from the northeast. Meanwhile, a <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;cut-off low&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;an upper-level low pressure system that has been &amp;quot;cut off&rdquo; from the prevailing winds that steer weather systems; cut-off lows typically become stationary or move very slowly, bringing prolonged periods of unsettled weather&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>cut-off low<\/span> continues to drift along in southern Arizona. This feature looks like it is less and less likely to impact our state.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/wv_markup4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-2570\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/wv_markup4.png\" alt=\"wv_markup\" width=\"606\" height=\"419\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>With the above features in mind, we considered the following factors for assessing today&rsquo;s flood threat:<\/p>\n<ul><li>Moisture levels continue to be fairly limited for heavy rainfall with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;precipitable water&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Precipitable Water<\/span> (<span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span>) values running close to seasonal normal in the 0.5 &ndash; 0.7 inch range east of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Divide<\/span> and lower to the west; <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> is expected to stay steady or increase, especially in the Southeast Plains as a weak low-pressure circulation may develop over Southeast Colorado later today. <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span>&rsquo;s may reach 1.0-1.2 inches from about La Junta southeastward.<\/li>\n<li>The cool front has increased moisture content, but also brought in a <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;stable&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the atmosphere is considered stable if it resists air attempting to rise; the opposite of unstable&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>stable<\/span> layer above the surface. Thus, instability will be focused immediately south of the cool front boundary. Roughly along and south of the Palmer Ridge.<\/li>\n<li>Dynamics are neutral to slightly favorable for heavy rainfall. The presence of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> will provide weak positive vorticity <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;advection&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The process of transport of an atmospheric property, typically temperature or moisture in our FTB discussions, by the wind. &amp;quot;Strong&rdquo; or &amp;quot;weak&rdquo; advection refers to the rate of change of the advected property&amp;#039;s value at a given point.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>advection<\/span> east of the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Divide<\/span>. However, most of the fuel for heavy rainfall will likely be provided by solar heating.<\/li>\n<li>Storm steering winds will be 25mph+ today and storm <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;training&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>training<\/span> is not expected. It will likely be a &ldquo;one-and-done&rdquo; type day with heavy rainfall potential. The only exception is in the far southeast portion of the state where a nocturnal <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;low-level jet&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A jet stream that is typically found in the lower 2&ndash;3 km of the atmosphere. At night, this may be referred to as the &amp;quot;nocturnal jet&rdquo; and help sustain storms.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>low-level jet<\/span> may continue to fuel storm activity after sunset.<\/li>\n<li>Dry air entrainment is expected over southern parts of the Raton Ridge which will likely limit rainfall rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul><p><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/FTB_20160531.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-2574\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/FTB_20160531.png\" alt=\"FTB_20160531\" width=\"797\" height=\"519\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge:<\/strong><br>\nPartly sunny early with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> to <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widespread&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;greater than 60% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widespread<\/span> showers and thunderstorms developing by early afternoon and lasting into the late evening and early overnight hours in the far southeast. Maximum 1 hour rainfall rates are shown below:<\/p>\n<p>Front Range\/Urban Corridor\/Northeast Plains: 1.3 inches per hour<br>\nPalmer Ridge\/Southeast Plains\/Southeast Mountains\/Raton Ridge: 1.9 inches per hour<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 1pm to 8pm in northern sections and 1pm to midnight in the Southeast Plains<\/p>\n<p>A Low flood threat has been issued for <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> field and roadway flooding. Mud flows and debris slides are possible over steeper terrain, including fire scar areas.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Central Mountains, Northern Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Grand Valley, Northwest Slope, Southwest Slope:<\/strong><br>\nMostly sunny early then turning partly cloudy. An <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain, with dry conditions elsewhere. Max hourly rain rates up to 0.2 inches. Gusty winds up to 50 mph will be possible under the thunderstorm updrafts. Flooding is not expected today.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Tuesday, May 31st, 2016 Issue Time: 10:40AM MDT &mdash; A LOW flood threat has been issued for the Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Southeast Plains and Southeast Mountains This morning&rsquo;s water vapor image, below, shows many players across the Rocky Mountain states and the central US. Of particular important is the surface low-pressure system [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2563"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2563"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2580,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2563\/revisions\/2580"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}