{"id":2383,"date":"2016-05-16T10:27:04","date_gmt":"2016-05-16T16:27:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=2383"},"modified":"2016-05-16T10:27:04","modified_gmt":"2016-05-16T16:27:04","slug":"ftb-05-16-2016-first-moderate-flood-threat-of-the-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=2383","title":{"rendered":"FTB 05-16-2016: First Moderate Flood Threat of the Season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 5\/16\/2016<br>\nIssue Time: 10:25 AM<\/p>\n<p><em>A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND RATON RIDGE.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A LOW FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, RATON RIDE, PALMER RIDGE, URBAN CORRIDOR, FRONT RANGE, SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, GRAND VALLEY, NORTHWEST SLOPE, AND SOUTHWEST SLOPE.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>An upper-level low will continue to work its way eastward across the western US today, spreading mid-\/upper-level support for <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span>-to-<span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widespread&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;greater than 60% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widespread<\/span> showers overhead. Plenty of moisture will continue to be pulled into Colorado at the same time, pushing <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;precipitable water&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>precipitable water<\/span> (IPW) values well above average for this time of year (see IPW graph below). Instability will be a mitigating factor across most of Colorado due to the extensive cloud cover and cool temperatures in many places.<\/p>\n<p>The best moisture\/instability will be present across the far Southeast Plains\/Raton Ridge, bringing about the highest expected rain rates, thus the moderate threat for those locations. A few storms will become severe, with the main threats being large hail (1-1.5 inches\/diameter), damaging winds (up to 55-70 mph), and an <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> tornado or two. Heavy rain will attend the strong\/<span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;severe thunderstorms&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Thunderstorms that produce a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 kts) and\/or hail at least 1&amp;quot; in diameter.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>severe thunderstorms<\/span>; rain rates will be mentioned in the zone-specific forecast discussions below.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/IPW_20160516.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-2384 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/IPW_20160516.png\" alt=\"IPW_20160516\" width=\"592\" height=\"264\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Overall, showers will be <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widespread&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;greater than 60% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widespread<\/span> across most of Colorado this afternoon\/evening, with thunderstorms more <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> in nature. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing moderate-to-heavy rainfall, but storm motions and meager instability (in most locations) are limiting factors on the flood threat. Thunderstorm activity will peak during the afternoon and early evening hours, with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> showers\/weak thunderstorms lingering into the overnight hours. Please see the zone-specific forecast discussions below for more details.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/a.tiles.mapbox.com\/v4\/sgeiger.056mm7kj\/attribution,zoompan,zoomwheel,geocoder,share.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1Ijoic2dlaWdlciIsImEiOiJmNjc5a3RBIn0.LbLupVkJsS5dbo9fsgrTDg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-135\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/floodthreat_legend2.png\" alt=\"Flood Threat Legend\" width=\"275\" height=\"71\"\/><\/div>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Urban Corridor (Arapahoe County and northward), and Northeast Plains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Cloudy with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> showers, and <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> afternoon\/evening thunderstorms expected. The main threats from thunderstorms will be brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Maximum rain rates will be 0.4-0.8 inches\/hour over the Northeast Plains, and 0.3-0.6 inches\/hour over the Urban Corridor. High temperatures will be well below average for this time of year.<\/p>\n<p>Timing: 11 AM &ndash; 8 PM, with lingering showers\/weak thunderstorms through the overnight hours.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Urban Corridor (South of Arapahoe County), Southeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Scattered<\/span> showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few will become strong-to-severe over the Southeast Plains and Raton Ridge. Maximum rain rates vary:<\/p>\n<p>Urban Corridor: 1.0-1.4 inches\/hour<br>\nPalmer Ridge: 0.8-1.2 inches\/hour<br>\nSoutheast Plains and Raton Ridge: 1.8-2.2 inches\/hour<\/p>\n<p>Timing: Noon &ndash; 9 PM, with lingering showers\/weak thunderstorms through the overnight hours<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Front Range, Northwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Grand Valley, Central Mountains, Southwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, Southeast Mountains and San Luis Valley:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widespread&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;greater than 60% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Widespread<\/span> showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing moderate-to-heavy rainfall, with stronger storms producing small hail and gusty winds up to 40-50 mph. Rain rates will vary:<\/p>\n<p>Northern Mountains: 0.3-0.6 inches\/hour<br>\nFront Range and Central Mountains: 0.8-1.2 inches\/hour<br>\nSoutheast Mountains: 1.4-1.8 inches\/hour<br>\nNorthwest Slope, Grand Valley, and Southwest Slope: 0.8-1.2 inches\/hour<br>\nSan Juan Mountains: 0.4-0.7 inches\/hour<br>\nSan Luis Valley: 0.2-0.5 inches\/hour<\/p>\n<p>Timing: Current &ndash; 8 PM, with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> lingering showers into the early morning hours<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 5\/16\/2016 Issue Time: 10:25 AM A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND RATON RIDGE. A LOW FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, RATON RIDE, PALMER RIDGE, URBAN CORRIDOR, FRONT RANGE, SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, GRAND VALLEY, NORTHWEST SLOPE, AND SOUTHWEST SLOPE. An upper-level [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2383"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2383"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2385,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2383\/revisions\/2385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}