Today’s water vapor imagery, shown below, indicates that the weak upper-level high pressure system has moved slightly eastward and is no longer much of a presence. Meanwhile, a seasonably strong low-pressure center has entered the west coast and is centered just west of the Great Basin. As this system moves slowly eastward, it will support shower and some thunderstorm activity across most of Colorado.<\/p>\n
In terms of the heavy rainfall potential, In all, today will see significantly more rainfall than yesterday, both in terms of coverage and intensity. However, 1-hr and 3-hr rainfall intensities are expected to stay below flood threat levels across the state. Thus, no flood threat is expected today.<\/p>\n
\n• the atmosphere’s dynamics are certainly more conducive than yesterday
\n• precipitable water<\/span> values range between 0.6 and 0.8 inches, which is quite a bit higher than normal for this time of year (Denver’s normal is about 0.45 for May 15th)
\n• morning sounding at Grand Junction (as well as Salt Lake City which is closer to the low center), most of the moisture is well above the surface. Instead, the low-level soundings favor more of a strong wind threat than a rain threat
\n• instability is limited, with most high-resolution probabilistic guidance such as the NCAR ensemble<\/a> showing rather small chances of exceeding 500 J\/kg
\n• storm motion will be in the 30-40 mph range, which is fast enough to limit heavy rainfall in any given location.<\/p>\n
![\"wv_markup\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/wv_markup.png\")
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