{"id":2308,"date":"2016-05-09T12:42:31","date_gmt":"2016-05-09T18:42:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=2308"},"modified":"2016-05-09T12:42:31","modified_gmt":"2016-05-09T18:42:31","slug":"fto-05-09-2016-three-events-during-this-period-one-elevated-flood-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=2308","title":{"rendered":"FTO 05-09-2016: Three Events During this Period, One Elevated Flood Threat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 5\/9\/2016
\nIssue Time: 12:40 PM<\/p>\n

\"Threat_Timeline_20160509\"<\/a><\/p>\n

An active period is ahead as the atmosphere breaks down out of its pseudo-blocking pattern and upper-level features become a bit more transient across the region. Taking a look at the water vapor image below, we can break down the first two events on the horizon. Event #1 is on the doorstep as an upper-level disturbance\/trough<\/span> swings across the northern states and drops moisture and a cool front into Colorado. Ridging will then build across the region on Thursday and Friday, bringing warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions. The exception will be over\/near the higher terrain, where isolated<\/span> thunderstorms will remain possible owing to orographic effects and residual moisture.<\/p>\n

\"WV_20160509\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Event #2 will begin on Saturday as the ridge breaks down ahead of the next upper-level low. Cloud cover will increase on Saturday, with isolated<\/span>-to-scattered<\/span> showers and thunderstorms possible across the state. The better rain chances arrive on Sunday\/Monday in association with the cool front and easterly, upslope flow behind the front. Ridging will again build in after Event #2, resulting in much the same conditions as the previously mentioned ridging.<\/p>\n

Models really diverge after this weekend, but it appears that a third event will take place, beginning on Friday, May 20th. At this time, it looks like another upper-level low will come onshore California and force southwesterly flow over Colorado late next week. In the more transient nature of the upper-level flow, this event looks to be fairly short duration (2-3 days) as the low moves off to the east\/northeast in short order.<\/p>\n

Event #1: Tuesday (05-10-2016) and Wednesday (05-11-2016)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Elevated Flood Threat<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

An upper-level disturbance\/trough<\/span> will swing across the northern states, dropping moisture and a cool front into Colorado. Scattered<\/span> showers and thunderstorms are expected across all regions, with the bulk of the best precipitation occurring along and south of I-70. A couple of storms across the lower elevations may become severe, but instability will be a limiting factor. Shallow, upslope flow will materialize briefly on Wednesday afternoon, potentially focusing heavier rain along the foothills, Urban Corridor, and western extents of the Southeast Plains.<\/p>\n