{"id":2067,"date":"2015-09-22T09:17:33","date_gmt":"2015-09-22T15:17:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=2067"},"modified":"2015-09-23T06:23:46","modified_gmt":"2015-09-23T12:23:46","slug":"ftb-09-22-2015-low-flood-threat-makes-a-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=2067","title":{"rendered":"FTB 09-22-2015: Low Flood Threat Makes a Return"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 9\/22\/2015
\nIssue Time: 9:17 AM<\/p>\n

A LOW FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST SLOPE, SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, RATON RIDGE, SOUTHEAST PLAINS, PALMER RIDGE, AND NORTHEAST PLAINS REGIONS.<\/em><\/p>\n

The moisture remnants of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are easily spotted across Colorado this morning, with the bright white colors indicating ample mid- and upper-level moisture. This increase in moisture has been accompanied by an increase in cloud cover, and all of these ingredients will have an impact on today’s forecast. First of all, the increase in cloud cover will lead to high temperatures that are cooler than the past few days, giving the air a more autumn-like feel. Second, the increase in moisture will lead to an increase in showers\/thunderstorms today, and a few will produce heavy rain. To break down where this is likely to occur, we need to look at the lower levels of the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

\"WV_09222015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The lower levels hold the key to today’s flood threat bulletin, as much of the state remains dry below 500 mb. The regions with the best moisture will be the San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Raton Ridge, and eastern portions of the Southeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, and Northeast Plains. Precipitable water<\/span> values over the San Juan Mountain and San Luis Valley regions will reach near 0.75 inches. Further east, southerly surface flow will increase through the afternoon, bringing in good low-level moisture for the other aforementioned regions, especially for locations along the CO\/KS border where precipitable water<\/span> values will climb to 1.25-1.50 inches. This amount of moisture available will lead to efficient rainfall production. On the other hand, the flood threat will be limited by widespread<\/span> cloud cover reducing instability and dry antecedent conditions, so only a low flood threat is warranted.<\/p>\n

Please check the zone-specific discussions below for more information.<\/p>\n

Today’s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.<\/p>\n

\"20150922_LFT\"<\/a><\/div>\n
\"Flood<\/div>\n

<\/h3>\n

Zone-Specific Forecasts<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Northwest Slope and Grand Valley:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Partly sunny and mainly dry, with high temperatures near average for the date. The best moisture and dynamics will stay south of the area, leaving these regions as the most pleasant across Colorado for today. Clouds will increase during the afternoon over the higher elevations, but nothing more than a sprinkle will result.<\/p>\n

Northern Mountains, Front Range, Southeast Mountains, and Central Mountains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Isolated<\/span>-to-scattered<\/span> showers and weak thunderstorms expected, with chances increasing from north to south. Maximum rain rates will sit between 0.4-0.7 inches\/hour, with most activity producing rainfall at 0.25-0.5 inches\/hour. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures will be the main impacts from today’s weather system.<\/p>\n

Timing: Noon – 6 AM<\/p>\n

San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, and Southwest Slope:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Scattered<\/span> showers and thunderstorms expected, with the best chances over the higher terrain and near the CO\/NM border where low-level moisture will be best. Maximum rain rates will be 1.0-1.5 inches\/hour. Otherwise, today will be filled with cloud cover and cooler temperatures.<\/p>\n

Timing: Current – 9 AM<\/p>\n

Urban Corridor:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Partly sunny with isolated<\/span> showers\/weak thunderstorms expected during the afternoon\/evening hours. The best chances for rainfall will be south of Denver. Maximum rain rates will be 0.4-0.7 inches\/hour.<\/p>\n

Timing: 4 PM – Midnight<\/p>\n

Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Scattered<\/span> showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with lingering activity into the overnight and morning hours tomorrow. Precipitable water<\/span> values will increase through the afternoon and southerly surface flow advects in good low-level moisture, pushing dewpoints into the upper 50’s and near 60. Maximum one hour rain rates will break down like this:<\/p>\n

Raton Ridge and Southeast Plains: 1.8-2.2 inches\/hour
\nPalmer Ridge: 1.0-1.6 inches\/hour
\nNortheast Plains: 0.8-1.2 inches\/hour<\/p>\n

Timing: 1 PM – Midnight, with locations near the CO\/KS border experiencing lingering storms into tomorrow morning (~6 AM).<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 9\/22\/2015 Issue Time: 9:17 AM A LOW FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST SLOPE, SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, RATON RIDGE, SOUTHEAST PLAINS, PALMER RIDGE, AND NORTHEAST PLAINS REGIONS. The moisture remnants of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are easily spotted across Colorado this morning, with the bright white colors indicating ample mid- and […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2067"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2067"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2067\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2073,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2067\/revisions\/2073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}