{"id":2057,"date":"2015-09-21T12:29:43","date_gmt":"2015-09-21T18:29:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=2057"},"modified":"2015-09-21T12:29:57","modified_gmt":"2015-09-21T18:29:57","slug":"fto-09-21-2015-three-events-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=2057","title":{"rendered":"FTO 09-21-2015: Three Events on the Horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 9\/21\/2015
\nIssue Time: 12:27 PM<\/p>\n

\"Threat_Timeline_20150921\"<\/a><\/p>\n

With the first official day of autumn only a few days away, the transition from the summer season is well underway. This transition manifests itself in changing leaves, cooler temperatures, and a more “active” storm track as the polar jet stream<\/span> sags southward. A slightly more active pattern will be in place over the next 15 days, resulting in three events to discuss in this version of the Flood Threat Outlook. However, with the transition to fall also comes the transition to lessened moisture available to storms. For that reason, only one event garners an “elevated flood threat” distinction, while the other two show no apparent flood threat.<\/p>\n

\"WV_20150921\"<\/a>
\nThe water vapor imagery tells the bulk of the story awaiting Colorado over the next 15 days. First, Event #1 is the result of the upper-level low sitting off CA\/Baja coast funneling Tropical Depression 16-E into the southwestern US. A few days ago, it looked as if the significant moisture associated with the tropical disturbance would move northward into Colorado, but at the event has unfolded, it is becoming increasingly likely the bulk of the moisture remains over AZ\/NM. After Event #1, drying and warming returns for a few days. More details on Event #1, plus discussions on Events #2 and #3 can be found in the event-specific discussions below.<\/p>\n

Event #1: Tuesday (9-22-2015) and Wednesday (9-23-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Elevated Flood Threat<\/span> as Remnants of Tropical Depression 16-E Encroach on Southern Colorado<\/em><\/p>\n

How far northward the tropical remnants will travel is the big question surrounding Event #1. Over the past few days, observational trends have shown that the track will likely take the best moisture south of Colorado and over New Mexico, leaving Colorado without widespread<\/span> precipitation. Instead, it looks like the moisture shield will more or less encroach on Colorado, allowing for good moisture to filter into southern and far eastern portions of the state. Precipitable water<\/span> values will climb to 0.8-1.25 inches in those areas. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, so heavy rainfall will be mitigated somewhat. Expect showers\/thunderstorms to be efficient rain producers due to the amount of moisture available, and prolonged periods of rain will be the main focus for a developing flood threat. Be sure and check back in with the Flood Threat Bulletin tomorrow for the most up-to-date information.<\/p>\n