{"id":2022,"date":"2015-09-17T13:23:40","date_gmt":"2015-09-17T19:23:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=2022"},"modified":"2015-09-17T13:24:14","modified_gmt":"2015-09-17T19:24:14","slug":"fto-09-17-2015-season-winding-down-two-events-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=2022","title":{"rendered":"FTO 09-17-2015: Season Winding Down, Two Events on the Horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 9\/17\/2015
\nIssue Time: 1:22 PM<\/p>\n

\"Threat_Timeline_20150917\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As the season winds down, we often see Nature’s last gasps at any significant rainfall events. During this period, there will be one event that grabs attention, while the other remains too distant to show an apparent flood threat. Over the next few days, enough moisture will remain over Colorado to allow for isolated<\/span>-to-scattered<\/span> showers\/weak thunderstorms to develop with the influence of weak disturbances aloft. No significant precipitation is expected with this activity, thus no event designation will be given. Following shortly after, Event #1 (9\/22-9\/24) will bring an elevated flood threat to western Colorado as the upper-level trough<\/span> digs along the West Coast and then pushes across the Rockies. You can see the event lurking over the eastern Pacific on the water vapor image below.<\/p>\n

\"WV_20150917\"<\/a>
\nAfter Event #1, Colorado dries out for the remainder of the period, minus a potential event (Event #2) materializing for Tuesday and Wednesday (9\/29-9\/30). Low confidence exists for Event #2 bringing rainfall to Colorado, as the storm track looks to keep the rainfall north and east of the state. Outside of Event #2, there isn’t any other rainfall of which to speak in the extended range. Stay tuned.<\/p>\n

Event #1: Tuesday (9-22-2015) through Thursday (9-24-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Elevated Flood Threat<\/span>, Western Colorado the Likely Target<\/em><\/p>\n

Southwest flow aloft will increase with the approach of an upper-level trough<\/span> from the west\/southwest, allowing subtropical moisture to re-enter Colorado. This event will mainly be a western Colorado event, as a surface trough<\/span> over the eastern Plains promotes downsloping<\/span> winds\/drying for areas east of the mountains. There is *some* disagreement in the amount of subtropical moisture that will be available, but there is good confidence that this will be a fairly wet period for western Colorado. Timing of shortwave<\/span> disturbances will be important to watch<\/span>; favorable timing will mean a greater risk for heavy rain, as well as increase precipitation chances for eastern Colorado.<\/p>\n