{"id":1986,"date":"2015-09-14T14:25:00","date_gmt":"2015-09-14T20:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1986"},"modified":"2015-09-14T16:34:27","modified_gmt":"2015-09-14T22:34:27","slug":"fto-09-14-2015-rainfall-chances-to-continue-but-with-only-brief-elevated-flood-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1986","title":{"rendered":"FTO 09-14-2015: Rainfall Chances To Continue, But With Only Brief Elevated Flood Threat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 9\/14\/2015
\nIssue Time: 2:25PM
\nValid Dates: 9\/15 – 9\/29<\/p>\n

Overview<\/h3>\n

\"threat_timeline.20150914\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The most significant news of this Flood Threat Outlook is that the 2015 Southwest United States monsoon<\/span> appears to be gradually closing up shop. Interestingly, given the presence of the moderate to strong El Nino, this early exit is consistent with what was observed in the past. And as the water vapor image shows, below, there exists a wide area of very dry conditions in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. However, despite the fact that the monsoon<\/span> may shut off a little early, an active atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean will continue to supply Colorado with rainfall chances throughout the coming 15-day period. Fortunately, aside from a very brief window next week, the rainfall will fall in a relatively calm fashion.<\/p>\n

\"watervapor_20150914\"<\/a>Two widespread<\/span> precipitation events are identified during this edition of the Outlook. Let us look at each event separately.<\/p>\n

Event #1: Tuesday (9\/15) – Wednesday (9\/16)<\/strong><\/p>\n

No Apparent Flood Threat<\/span> With Rainfall Mostly West Of The Divide<\/span><\/p>\n

The first event will be a continuation of today’s (Monday) rainfall in western Colorado. A large-scale trough<\/span> will propagate over the northern Rockies, supporting two additional days of rainfall. With the very fast steering flow overhead and only limited instability, numerous<\/span> rounds of showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm will characterize this period. However, rainfall will be largely limited to western Colorado, as downsloping<\/span> flow will prevent rainfall over the eastern Plains. In all, up to 1 inch of rainfall will be possible in isolated<\/span> regions of the Northern Mountains, Central Mountains and San Juans. In lower elevations, 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain can be expected.<\/p>\n