{"id":19507,"date":"2022-09-01T14:30:01","date_gmt":"2022-09-01T20:30:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=19507"},"modified":"2022-09-05T12:14:41","modified_gmt":"2022-09-05T18:14:41","slug":"fto-09-01-2022-quick-rainfall-event-to-start-memorial-day-weekend-then-possible-monsoon-surge-next-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=19507","title":{"rendered":"FTO 09-01-2022: Quick Rainfall Event  To Start Labor Day Weekend, Then Possible Monsoon Surge Next Weekend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Issue Date: Thursday,&nbsp;September 1st, 2022<br>\nIssue Time: 2:30PM MDT<br>\nValid Dates:&nbsp;9\/2 &ndash; 9\/16<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19508\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901-300x39.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901-300x39.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901-1024x133.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901-768x100.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901-1536x200.png 1536w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901-2048x266.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It&rsquo;s officially meteorological fall today, although the well above average temperatures feel like it&rsquo;s a continuation of summer. Above average temperatures are forecast through at least this next week with an upper-level ridge overhead. Event #1 is a quick 2-day event beginning tomorrow. Some diurnally driven storms are expected over the mountains with some <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms possible over the plains tomorrow. After Saturday, dry air should circulate around the building High, which should keep precipitation chances limited over Colorado next week. Event #2 is not expected to begin until the end of next week when flow could turn southerly and pull some tropical moisture northwards over the state. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this forecast as the plume could easily stay south and east of the state. Details should start to become clearer at the beginning of next week.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/wv_20220901.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19509\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/wv_20220901-300x191.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/wv_20220901-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/wv_20220901-1024x651.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/wv_20220901-768x488.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/wv_20220901.png 1434w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> plumes are not overly impressive with values likely remaining below climatology through Thursday. There is a slight uptick in moisture over eastern Colorado tomorrow and Saturday behind a weak cold front. This front should help to produce <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms over the Southeast Mountains and possibly the adjacent plains tomorrow afternoon and evening. By Saturday, storms are expected to be confined to the mountains with northerly (north) and NNE (south) steering flows forecast. With only weak mid-level lift, quicker steering flows on Friday, and limited moisture, there is No Apparent flood threat issued for Event #1.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19510\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901-300x105.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"307\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901-300x105.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901-1024x358.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901-768x268.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901-1536x536.png 1536w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PW_20220901-2048x715.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Event #1:<\/strong><strong> Friday<\/strong> <strong>&ndash; Saturday (<\/strong><strong>9\/2<\/strong><strong> &ndash; <\/strong><strong>9\/3<\/strong><strong>)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">No Apparent<\/span> flood threat as weak dynamics and moisture produce <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span> storms are forecast tomorrow over the mountains, Southeast Plains and elevated ridges. Storms that are able to develop over the adjacent plains along the boundary should have limited surface moisture, which means they could produce some strong <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds and plenty of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;virga&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Wisps or streaks of precipitation falling out of a cloud that evaporate before reaching the surface. Virga can cause strong, but short-lived, localized winds (dry microburst).&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>virga<\/span>. Over the mountains, <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms are most likely to develop along and near the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span> and over the Southeast Mountains. There&rsquo;s a better chance for <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widely scattered<\/span> storms to develop over the southern high terrain on Saturday. During this period, storms should be short-lived and produce rain rates under 0.5 inches. Therefore, there is No Apparent threat has been issued.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19572\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1-300x203.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"597\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1-1024x694.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1-768x521.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1-1536x1041.png 1536w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e1.png 1776w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Event #2: <\/strong><strong>Thursday<\/strong><strong> &ndash; Sunday (<\/strong><strong>9\/8<\/strong><strong> &ndash; <\/strong><strong>9\/11<\/strong><strong>)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Potential tropical moisture surge with added dynamics may cause an uptick in rainfall coverage, although at this time, there is <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">No Apparent<\/span> flood threat issued. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There&rsquo;s a lot that can change over the next week and key ingredients that need to come together for Event #2. At the moment, long-term model guidance isn&rsquo;t showing consensus either, so choosing to keep this forecast on the lower-end of the flood potential scale. A passing of a <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> to our north, northward movement of the tropical moisture and the position\/existence of a weak <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> to our southeast will have to have the right timelines and tracks to get the moisture plume over the state. The likelihood of all the ingredients coming together is low, but stay tuned to the FTO on Monday as their will likely be an update to the forecast. At the most there would be a 1- or 2-day category upgrade to the event, but only if it looks more likely that the plume will move overhead.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19573\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2-300x203.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"596\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2-1024x693.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2-768x520.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2-1536x1040.png 1536w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/FTO_20220901_e2.png 1782w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\"\/><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Thursday,&nbsp;September 1st, 2022 Issue Time: 2:30PM MDT Valid Dates:&nbsp;9\/2 &ndash; 9\/16 It&rsquo;s officially meteorological fall today, although the well above average temperatures feel like it&rsquo;s a continuation of summer. Above average temperatures are forecast through at least this next week with an upper-level ridge overhead. Event #1 is a quick 2-day event beginning [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19507"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19507"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19598,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19507\/revisions\/19598"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}