{"id":19456,"date":"2022-08-29T14:46:18","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T20:46:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=19456"},"modified":"2022-09-01T07:33:41","modified_gmt":"2022-09-01T13:33:41","slug":"fto-08-29-2022-mainly-dry-and-warm-start-to-fall-then-all-eyes-turn-southto-the-tropics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=19456","title":{"rendered":"FTO 08-29-2022: Mainly Dry and Warm Start To Fall, Then All Eyes Turn South\u2026To The Tropics?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Monday, August 29<sup>th<\/sup>, 2022<br>\nIssue Time: 2:45PM MDT<br>\nValid Dates: 8\/30-9\/13<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/threat_timeline-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-19461\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/threat_timeline-4-1024x150.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"910\" height=\"133\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/threat_timeline-4-1024x150.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/threat_timeline-4-300x44.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/threat_timeline-4-768x113.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/threat_timeline-4.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 910px) 100vw, 910px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>After 79 straight days of precipitation somewhere across Colorado, the streak looks to finally end this week as drier air overtakes the state. At least briefly!<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Colorado has not seen a dry day statewide since June 10th &ndash; a stretch of 79 straight days with rain! It's probably not coincidence that there is no ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/cofire?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#cofire<\/a> activity. But, the wet streak may finally end this week. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/cowx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#cowx<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/coflood?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#coflood<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CsBCitfkvJ\">pic.twitter.com\/CsBCitfkvJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Colorado Flood Threat Bulletin (@COFloodUpdates) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/COFloodUpdates\/status\/1564329226752376833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 29, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As shown in the water vapor image, below, a large-scale ridge is beginning to build across northwest North America. This will continue to evolve over the next 48 hours so that by mid-week, much above normal heat is expected along the US West Coast. Closer to home, however, the clockwise northerly flow around the expected ridge will promote subsidence. With only marginal moisture available, we expect a rather dry week for our state. At least compared to the past few months! Nonetheless, a couple of disturbances (Event #1 and Event #2) should support at least an <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> risk of shower and storm activity over the course of this week. Event #1 will occur on Wednesday, followed by another drier lull and then Event #2 this weekend. Flooding is not expected with either Event. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to increase a bit and most of the state will see afternoon heat of 3-7F above normal values for early September.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/wv_markup-5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19458 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/wv_markup-5-1024x684.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"753\" height=\"503\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/wv_markup-5-1024x684.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/wv_markup-5-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/wv_markup-5-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/wv_markup-5.png 1059w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 753px) 100vw, 753px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Things turn interesting by next week as there is a surprising amount of consensus regarding the development of one or more tropical disturbances over the eastern tropical Pacific. As shown in the forecast GEFS <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span>, below, this will be occurring in a backdrop of higher moisture (see especially the Grand Junction forecast). Thus, showers and storms of modest intensity are likely to return to the Four Corners by early next week. Within Colorado, the best coverage will be along the climatologically preferred southern border, notably over the Southeast Mountains and San Juan Mountains. The flood threat will depend largely on the amount of tropical moisture that can trek up the western Mexico coast. In the absence of tropical moisture, it appears that the normal monsoonal dynamics and moisture will be too weak to support heavy rainfall capable of a flood threat. And with this situation being so far into the forecast, we do not expect flooding at this time. However, the next Outlook should be able to better assess the tropical moisture contribution, and whether a flood threat is needed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/gefs_pw_plumes-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-19459\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/gefs_pw_plumes-1-1024x383.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"910\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/gefs_pw_plumes-1-1024x383.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/gefs_pw_plumes-1-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/gefs_pw_plumes-1-768x287.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/gefs_pw_plumes-1.png 1447w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 910px) 100vw, 910px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The identified precipitation events are described in more detail below.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Event #1: Wednesday (August 31)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span> Showers and Weak Storms For Central Higher Terrain; <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">No Apparent Flood Threat<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span> to perhaps <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widely scattered<\/span> showers and weaker storms are expected to return to the central higher terrain on Wednesday afternoon. Only 0.25 &ndash; 0.5 inches of precipitation is expected for lucky locations.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Event #2: Saturday &ndash; Sunday (September 3 &ndash; September 4)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Widely Scattered<\/span> Storms For Central\/Southern Higher Terrain; <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">No Apparent Flood Threat<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span> to <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widely scattered<\/span> showers and weaker storms are expected on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Best coverage looks to be over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains on Saturday, shifting towards the central and southwestern higher terrain by Sunday. Max 30-minute rainfall up to 0.5 inches looks possible, along with gusty winds.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Event #3: Tuesday &ndash; Friday (September 6 &ndash; September 9)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>Showers and Storms Return, Mainly Along Southern Border; <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">No Apparent Flood Threat<\/span> At This Time<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>An prolonged increase in thunderstorm activity is expected by early next week as monsoonal moisture returns to the state. At this time, it appears there will be a strong gradient in the moisture, implying that only the southern one-third of Colorado looks to see meaningful precipitation. <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Widely scattered<\/span> to <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> storms are expected mainly over the climatologically preferred Southeast Mountains and San Juan Mountains each afternoon and evening. At this time, max 30-min rainfall looks to be limited to 0.5-0.6 inches, thus flooding is not expected. However, the next Outlook should have a better assessment of whether a (low-end) threat is needed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19491\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3-300x203.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"597\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3-1024x695.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3-768x521.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3-1536x1042.png 1536w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/FTO_20220829_e3.png 1784w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 880px) 100vw, 880px\"\/><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Monday, August 29th, 2022 Issue Time: 2:45PM MDT Valid Dates: 8\/30-9\/13 After 79 straight days of precipitation somewhere across Colorado, the streak looks to finally end this week as drier air overtakes the state. At least briefly! Colorado has not seen a dry day statewide since June 10th &ndash; a stretch of 79 [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19456"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19456"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19456\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19492,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19456\/revisions\/19492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}