— Fire-Burn Forecast Summary:<\/strong> 3 burn areas under LOW threat, click <\/em>HERE<\/a> for more info <\/em><\/p>\n
This morning, midlevel dynamics associated with the upper trough<\/span> continue to move out of eastern Colorado, with drier air and subsidence pulling in behind it. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance in the flow is forecast to move into western Colorado with some subtle midlevel dynamics this afternoon, as noted by the furthest west “X” in the water vapor image below. Moisture throughout the column and boundary layer<\/span> has dropped notably since yesterday for central and western Colorado, with Grand Junction measuring a PW<\/span> value of 0.78 inches this morning, and Platteville measure a PW<\/span> value of 0.75 inches. At the surface, dewpoints in the mid-40s°F are common over western Colorado except for some low-50s°F noted over the far southwest portions of the state near the New Mexico border. Dewpoint depressions<\/span> are small for much of western Colorado and resulted in valley fog this morning across some lower elevations that is beginning to erode.<\/p>\n As the weak midlevel impulse enters western Colorado this afternoon, it will combine with the diurnal upslope circulation to trigger isolated<\/span> storms over some of the higher elevations west of the Continental Divide<\/span>. With surface moisture forecast to mix out significantly today, these storms should produce primarily gusty winds north and west of the Continental Divide<\/span>, with the heavier rainfall chances focused over the southwest portions of the state where more residual surface moisture should remain. Additionally, instability values between 800-1200 J\/kg of CAPE<\/span> are forecast for these areas. Given steering speeds forecast in the 5 to 10mph range, these storms could potentially anchor to the high terrain and produce relatively brief, but locally heavy rainfall within a few hours window before instability drops and drying increases. However, rain rates are expected to remain just below flood thresholds so NO flooding is expected today.<\/p>\n Over far eastern Colorado, dew points<\/span> in the mid and upper 50s°F and even low 60s°F were noted with PW<\/span> above 1 inch. Though some continued drying is expected statewide, some areas in the far southeastern plains may be able to hold onto some surface moisture. An isolated<\/span> storm or two may drift across this area and produce brief, locally moderate to heavy rainfall due to higher instability values forecast to reach between 1200-1800 J\/kg of CAPE<\/span>. However, forcing for storms in this area should be weak and thus preclude a greater rainfall threat. NO flooding is expected today.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/bestest-1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/FTB_NoThreat_2022_light.png\")
<\/p>\n