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<\/a><\/p>\nThe state should finally start to see some relief from monsoon<\/span> rainfall next week, but not before a quick and low-end 2-day Elevated flood threat for tomorrow and Saturday. An incoming Low along with some moisture is expected to help to boost mid-level energy and rain rates for Friday and Saturday before a drying trend begins on Sunday. Without any mechanism to mix out residual moisture, afternoon mountain storms are forecast through Wednesday with the weak ridge beginning to rebuild overhead (Event #2). By the end of next week, a shortwave<\/span> is likely to breakdown the ridge and drop a weak cold front through the state. Unsure about the longevity of the heavy rainfall threat, but post frontal upslope flow will likely Elevate the flood threat for a couple of days during this period (Event #3). Long-term guidance is then starting to show a true drying trend, so Event #3 should be short-lived. With the next shot at a complete dry day sometime during the last week of August, the state should easily reach 75 days of consecutive precipitation.<\/p>\n The quick upturn in moisture can be seen both east and west in the PW<\/span> plumes below. It’s quite the turnaround in moisture return over western Colorado, which will be the focus of the Elevated flood threat tomorrow. PW<\/span> then begins to drop off to more normal values for late August afternoon Saturday, which means rainfall should stick around in the forecast, but there is No Apparent threat. There is an outside chance for a low-end flood threat during Event #2, but only if a shortwave<\/span> can move through during peak heating and surface moisture does not mix out. This would be most likely to occur over the central or southern high terrain earlier in the week. There is also increasing confidence that afternoon mountain storms should become more widely scattered<\/span> by Wednesday with drier air moving overhead. By the end of the week, PW<\/span> anomalies (not shown) are showing a slight increase to moisture again, but changes to the forecast are anticipated as Event #3 gets closer.<\/p>\n Mid-level lift and an increase in moisture will return the flood threat through Saturday, and an Elevated<\/span> threat has been issued for high terrain over western, central and southern Colorado. <\/strong><\/p>\n More widespread<\/span> rainfall should return to western high terrain and mountains on Friday with some spillover into the Urban Corridor possible with northwest steering flow. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 1.25 inches and 3-hour totals up to 1.75 inches will be possible along with small hail and strong winds from the thunderstorms that develop. Heading into Saturday, the heavy rainfall threat shifts to the southern high terrain, including the Raton Ridge, with steering flows becoming more southerly. Similar 1-hour rain rates are anticipated with some longer duration rainfall helping to increase totals over the southern and central mountains. The Elevated threat for both events are on the low-end, but debris slides, mud flows and road flooding will be possible over steep terrain.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEvent #1:<\/strong> Friday – Sunday (8\/1<\/strong>9<\/strong> – 8\/<\/strong>21<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/h4>\n