{"id":18472,"date":"2022-07-18T09:28:26","date_gmt":"2022-07-18T15:28:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=18472"},"modified":"2022-07-18T09:35:50","modified_gmt":"2022-07-18T15:35:50","slug":"%ef%bf%bcftb-07-18-2022-hot-day-ahead-with-scattered-storms-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=18472","title":{"rendered":"FTB 07-18-2022: HOT Day Ahead With Scattered Storms Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Monday, July 18th, 2022<br>Issue Time: 9:30AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash;<\/em><em> Flooding is&nbsp;<\/em><strong><em>NOT&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><em>expected today<\/em><br><em>&mdash;<\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><strong><em>Fire-Burn Forecast Summary:<\/em><\/strong><em>&nbsp;5 <\/em><em>burn areas under L<\/em><em>OW<\/em><em> threat; click <a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?cat=7\">HERE<\/a> for more info<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Afternoon high temperatures will be on the rise today, so expect a VERY hot day across the state thanks to the strong ridge overhead. A Heat Advisory has been issued for northeast Colorado (elevations below 6K feet) with the hottest temperatures expected over the eastern plains.&nbsp;Looking at the water vapor imagery, there is quite the dry air mass to our east, but a bit of moisture (blue shades) rotating around the High into Colorado. As a <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> passes to our north, the High will be slightly pushed south, but plenty of moisture and mid-level energy should remain over the state along with WSW and westerly flow aloft. <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> at Grand Junction was measured at 0.99 inches, so a decent increase from this time yesterday. This should allow <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> storms to develop over the western high terrains and mountains today as the typical diurnal flow pattern sets up with daytime heating. More <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms are expected over the adjacent eastern plains with <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> at Denver estimated around 0.75 inches with values increasing to around 0.90 inches over the plains. For areas east today, the main threat today will be strong <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds that develop under the stronger storm cores.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wv_20220718.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-18473\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wv_20220718-300x207.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wv_20220718-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wv_20220718-1024x706.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wv_20220718-768x530.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wv_20220718.png 1256w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Surface moisture, especially over western Colorado and the mountains, looks sizeable enough that some quick downpours will be possible with some mid-level lift also over the area. However, moderate steering flows associated with the passing <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;trough&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure; the opposite of a ridge.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>trough<\/span> should keep the threat from any given storm to around 20-40 minutes. Some <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> areas of <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;training&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>training<\/span> storms may help boost local accumulations, but rain rates should remain under flood threat criteria. Therefore, flooding is NOT expected today.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-13436 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/FTB_NoThreat_2022_light.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"573\"\/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Central Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope &amp; San Juan Mountains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>High temperatures today across the lower elevations will reach into the mid to upper-90&deg;Fs with the century mark possible over the Grand Valley and far southwest corner of the state. Upper 70&deg;Fs and 80&deg;Fs are forecast for the mountain valleys. Best chance for storms today will be over the elevated mesas\/plateaus and mountains with the best storm coverage over these central and northern forecast zones. <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span>, max 30-minute rain rates up to 0.85 inches will be possible. Where <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;training&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Continuous or repeated rainfall over the same region&nbsp;in a relatively short time span. Training thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall totals and cause flash flooding.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>training<\/span> storms set up (most likely around\/near the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Continental Divide&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;the dividing line that separates the watersheds of the western and eastern United States; rivers west of the divide empty into the Pacific Ocean, while rivers east of the divide empty into the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Continental Divide<\/span>, Flat Tops and Grand Mesa), <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storm totals up to 1.4 inches will be possible over 2-3 hour period. With rain rates forecast to remain below flood threat criteria, flooding is NOT expected. Additional threats from the stronger thunderstorms that develop will be brief wind gusts around 55 mph and dangerous lighting.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 12PM to 10PM<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Urban Corridor, San Luis Valley, Raton Ridge &amp; Southeast Plains: <\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>High temperatures are forecast to reach 80&deg;Fs for the mountain valleys, upper 90&deg;Fs to 100&deg;F for the I-25 Corridor\/elevated ridges and between 100&deg;F and 105&deg;F over the eastern plains. A Heat Advisory has been issued for elevations below 6K feet over northeast Colorado. As far as rainfall, thunderstorms and showers should be more <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;widely scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;10-25% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>widely scattered<\/span> over these higher terrains with the best storm coverage anticipated over the southern Front Range, Southeast Mountains and elevated ridges. Max 30-minute rain rates up to 0.75 inches (west) and 0.85 inches (east) with <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> totals up to 0.9 inches will be possible. A couple stronger thunderstorm may develop over the border counties, but only if storms can make it there before instability drops off with the setting sun. The main threat from the stronger storms would be strong <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds with max 1-hour rain rates up to 1.25 inches possible. Flooding is NOT expected.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 12:30PM to 11PM<\/p>\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Monday, July 18th, 2022Issue Time: 9:30AM MDT &mdash; Flooding is&nbsp;NOT&nbsp;expected today&mdash;&nbsp;Fire-Burn Forecast Summary:&nbsp;5 burn areas under LOW threat; click HERE for more info Afternoon high temperatures will be on the rise today, so expect a VERY hot day across the state thanks to the strong ridge overhead. A Heat Advisory has been issued [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18472"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18472"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18472\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18477,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18472\/revisions\/18477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}