{"id":1839,"date":"2015-09-01T08:48:09","date_gmt":"2015-09-01T14:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1839"},"modified":"2015-09-01T08:48:09","modified_gmt":"2015-09-01T14:48:09","slug":"ftb-09-01-2015-downtick-in-thunderstorms-on-the-first-day-of-meteorological-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1839","title":{"rendered":"FTB 09-01-2015: Downtick in Thunderstorms on the First Day of Meteorological Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 09\/01\/2015<br>\nIssue Time: 8:36 AM<\/p>\n<p><em>NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Subtropical moisture remains across Colorado and will provide another afternoon\/evening of showers and thunderstorms. The moisture, however, is less than yesterday and the environment is lacking overall support for strong thunderstorms, especially across flood prone areas (i.e., burn scars, steep terrain, low-lying urban areas). This will keep most showers and thunderstorms, especially those over and near the higher terrain, to &ldquo;garden-variety&rdquo; status, producing brief light-to-moderate rainfall, gusty winds, and a bit of lightning.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/IPW_09012015.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-1840 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/IPW_09012015.png\" alt=\"IPW_09012015\" width=\"504\" height=\"216\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The one exception to this rule will be across a portion of the Southeast Plains, namely Cheyenne, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, Otero, Las Animas, and Baca counties) where a bit more instability will be present this afternoon\/evening. An <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> thunderstorm or two will develop in this environment and be capable of locally moderate rainfall, small hail, and strong <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds (up to 45-50 mph). No <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;flash flooding&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;flash flooding can refer to usually dry areas becoming rapidly inundated with water, or rapid water level rises on streams, creeks, or rivers beyond flood stage; typically caused by heavy rainfall, but can also be caused by meltwater&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>flash flooding<\/span> is expected from these storms; <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;Inverted-V&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Refers to the shape of the lower levels of an atmospheric profile. The shape of the &amp;quot;Inverted V&rdquo; is the result of dry air below cloud level, which promotes strong winds and evaporation of precipitation before reaching the surface.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Inverted-V<\/span> atmospheric profiles are expected and should cut down realized rainfall rates at the surface.<\/p>\n<p>Otherwise, the big story of today will be another day of above-average temperatures. Mother Nature has not quite gotten the memo that today is the first day of Meteorological Fall.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/a.tiles.mapbox.com\/v4\/sgeiger.m2iiic0j\/attribution,zoompan,zoomwheel,geocoder,share.html?access_token=pk.eyJ1Ijoic2dlaWdlciIsImEiOiJmNjc5a3RBIn0.LbLupVkJsS5dbo9fsgrTDg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-135\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/floodthreat_legend2.png\" alt=\"Flood Threat Legend\" width=\"275\" height=\"71\"\/><\/div>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Northwest Slope, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Luis Valley, San Juan Mountains, and Southwest Slope:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span>-to-<span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;scattered&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;25-40% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>scattered<\/span> showers and thunderstorms, favoring the higher terrain. Adjacent valleys will see a few storms move overhead during the evening hours as they drift off of the mountain ridges. Maximum rain rates will be 0.7-1.0 inches\/hour, but most rates will be less than that, in the 0.3-0.6 inches\/hour range.<\/p>\n<p>Timing: 11 AM &ndash; 8 PM with a couple of weak showers lingering until midnight.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The weather story today will be above-average temperatures and <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> thunderstorms, with the best relative coverage near the mountains and along the preferred terrain of the Palmer Ridge and Raton Ridge. Garden-variety is the term that comes to mind when discussing the impacts of today&rsquo;s thunderstorms; maximum rain rates will break down like this:<\/p>\n<p>Urban Corridor, western portions of the Southeast Plains\/Northeast Plains\/Palmer Ridge\/Raton Ridge: 0.5-0.8 inches\/hour<br>\nEastern portions of the Northeast Plains\/Southeast Plains\/Palmer Ridge\/Raton Ridge: 1.0-1.5 inches\/hour<\/p>\n<p>Timing: Noon &ndash; 9 PM, with an <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> shower\/thunderstorm or two lingering across the far eastern plains until midnight.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: 09\/01\/2015 Issue Time: 8:36 AM NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST. Subtropical moisture remains across Colorado and will provide another afternoon\/evening of showers and thunderstorms. The moisture, however, is less than yesterday and the environment is lacking overall support for strong thunderstorms, especially across flood prone areas (i.e., burn scars, steep terrain, low-lying urban [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1839"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1839"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1839\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1841,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1839\/revisions\/1841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}