{"id":1833,"date":"2015-08-31T12:52:41","date_gmt":"2015-08-31T18:52:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1833"},"modified":"2015-08-31T12:52:58","modified_gmt":"2015-08-31T18:52:58","slug":"fto-08-31-2015-three-events-one-elevated-flood-threat-on-tap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1833","title":{"rendered":"FTO 08-31-2015: Three Events, One Elevated Flood Threat On Tap"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 8\/31\/2015
\nIssue Time: 12:40 PM<\/p>\n

\"Threat_Timeline_20150831\"<\/a><\/p>\n

True to form, the first thing to do when discussing the 15-day forecast is to take a look at the water vapor imagery and analyze the current workings of the atmosphere. First of all, the central Pacific Ocean remains active with three hurricanes (two pictured, circled in red; Ignacio left, Jimena right). While bearing no direct effects to Colorado, you can see the moisture connection between Ignacio and Colorado, as southwest flow aloft transports the moisture into the SW United States. The purple line represents the trough<\/span> that will spend the better part of this week\/weekend digging along the west coast. This will keep persistent southwest flow aloft across Colorado, maintaining the same sort of pattern that we have experienced over the previous 4 or so days. Moisture will gradually decrease Tuesday through Thursday, before increasing again on Friday and into the weekend. The drying will help break up the forecast between Events #1 and #2.<\/p>\n

\"08312015_WV\"<\/a><\/p>\n

By the end of the weekend\/early next week, the upper-trough<\/span> will push to the east, bringing an end to the persistent southwest flow and monsoonal moisture for a day or so. Then, almost like clockwork, another upper-level trough<\/span> will enter the Pacific NW, placing Colorado under the influence of southwest flow once again. This trough<\/span> will be a bit more transient than previous iterations, only bringing a two-day wet period before moving on and allowing Colorado to dry out for a few days to end this forecast period.<\/p>\n

A LOOK AHEAD<\/strong>: After this 15-day period, the effects of the three hurricanes in the central Pacific will become more direct through indirect means; their recurving into the storm track across the northern Pacific will hold ramifications for our weather pattern. A favorable recurve\/wave interaction could lead to another active period, but this is purely speculative at this point. It is way too early to tell, so be sure and stay tuned.<\/p>\n

Event #1: Tuesday (09-01-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

No Apparent Flood Threat<\/span> during Final Day of the Current Moisture Surge<\/em><\/p>\n

Southwest flow aloft will remain over Colorado on Tuesday, combining with the lingering moisture plume to bring about another day of scattered<\/span> showers\/thunderstorms over the mountains and isolated<\/span> coverage elsewhere. Instability values will spend another day on the low side, unable to unlock the full potential of the monsoonal moisture. For that reason, no apparent flood threat exists at this time. Depending on how today (08-31-2015) unfolds with respect to rainfall totals\/saturated soil, a low flood threat may be introduced in tomorrow’s FTB. Be sure and check back in tomorrow morning for the latest.<\/p>\n