— A LOW<\/strong> flood threat has been issued for portions of Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains and Southeast Plains<\/em>
— Fire-Burn Forecast Summary: <\/strong>6 burn areas under MODERATE threat, 4 burn areas under LOW threat; click HERE<\/a> for more info<\/em><\/p>\n
Plenty of monsoonal moisture continues to hang around Colorado as we start July. This morning’s PW<\/span> came in at 0.93 inches at Denver and 0.99 inches at Grand Junction, well above seasonal normal. The moisture profile was equally distributed throughout the atmosphere, which is supportive of heavy rainfall potential. Dewpoint temperatures have increase statewide, but especially over central and southeast areas as weak cool front has trekked slowly southward overnight.<\/p>\n As shown in the satellite image, below, today is a type of day where the devil is in the details. In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a couple of weak disturbances were noted both over eastern Colorado and back west towards the Four Corners. These will slowly rotate clockwise across Colorado, providing some organization to storms firing initially off the higher terrain. At the surface, the passage of a weak cool front will likely limit rainfall coverage over northeast Colorado as weak subsidence and limited instability is expected. However, a few late evening storms (possibly severe) could move through the area with brief moderate\/heavy rainfall. But the more problematic areas today will be over the central and southern higher terrain where plenty of moisture, the aforementioned cool front boundary and morning sunshine will boost instability up to 1,800 J\/kg CAPE<\/span> locally. With slow storm motion in the 15-20 mph range, heavy rainfall will be possible. In addition, if initial storms fire early enough in the afternoon (as expected), at least one more round of later storms could occur as the atmosphere recovers instability. Thus, in addition to the usual potential of 30-60 minute heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding<\/span>, there is the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over a 3-6 hour period. Overall, this in addition to the antecedent precipitation, warrants a MODERATE flood threat for mainly the southern foothills and higher terrain, with a LOW flood threat over surrounding areas. Activity should subside quickly after sunset for most areas, but a few storm complexes could survive into the early overnight hours eastward over the plains as the nocturnal low-level jet<\/span> arrives.<\/p>\n
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