{"id":1795,"date":"2015-08-27T12:45:33","date_gmt":"2015-08-27T18:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1795"},"modified":"2015-08-27T12:45:33","modified_gmt":"2015-08-27T18:45:33","slug":"fto-08-27-2015-three-events-no-apparent-flood-threats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1795","title":{"rendered":"FTO 08-27-2015: Three Events, No Apparent Flood Threats"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 8\/27\/2015
\nIssue Time: 12:35 PM<\/p>\n

\"Threat_Timeline_20150827\"<\/a><\/p>\n

There are 5 main features to pick out of the water vapor image below: Tropical Storm Erika in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Jimena (right) and Hurricane Ignacio (left) in the Pacific, high pressure ridge over the central\/western US, and the low pressure trough<\/span> off the west coast of the US and Canada. Tropical Storm Erika does not mean much to our forecast, but it will be interesting to watch<\/span> over the coming days with regards to its track, intensity, and longevity. Jimena and Ignacio will continue to move westward further into the Pacific, and are also without impact to Colorado.<\/p>\n

\"WV_08272015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The high pressure ridge and low pressure trough<\/span>, and how they interact with each other, will be the main story of this FTO period. As hard as the low pressure trough<\/span> tries, the high pressure ridge is not ready to give up ground. As those two systems duke it out, monsoonal moisture will come and go, along with associated disturbances. The low pressure trough<\/span> will also eject a few shortwave<\/span> troughs through the forecast period, but the best broad-scale support for thunderstorms will likely be too far north to really mean a prolonged\/elevated flood threat for Colorado. In the event discussions below, I have highlighted 3 “event” periods, none of which provide an apparent flood threat. In a weather regime such as this, the daily Flood Threat Bulletin’s will be crucial because the amount of moisture\/instability\/support will fluctuate daily. Stay tuned.<\/p>\n

Event #1: Saturday (08-29-2015) through Tuesday (09-01-2015)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

No Apparent Flood Threat<\/span> from mostly “Garden-variety” Thunderstorms<\/em><\/p>\n

Weak south\/southwesterly flow aloft will return as the ridge axis gets pushed east of Colorado by the upper-level trough<\/span>. This will bring some moisture back into Colorado, providing an uptick in precipitation over and adjacent to the mountains. Low-level moisture east of the mountains will be a bit on the low side, so most storms will be garden variety with brief light-to-moderate rainfall. Over the mountains, moisture will be better overall, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. At this time, precipitation totals from the 4-day event are not that spectacular, with most areas receiving a half-inch or less. No flood threat designation is warranted at this time.<\/p>\n