{"id":1789,"date":"2015-08-27T09:16:06","date_gmt":"2015-08-27T15:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=1789"},"modified":"2015-08-27T09:16:06","modified_gmt":"2015-08-27T15:16:06","slug":"ftb-08-27-2015-plenty-of-moisture-available-but-timing-of-the-trough-proves-crucial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=1789","title":{"rendered":"FTB 08-27-2015: Plenty of Moisture Available, but Timing of the Trough Proves Crucial"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issue Date: 8\/27\/2015
\nIssue Time: 9:05 AM<\/p>\n

NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.<\/em><\/p>\n

The IPW graph below certainly shows that there is plenty of moisture available to showers\/thunderstorms. Grand Junction, after peaking above 1.35 inches yesterday evening, has come back down slightly to just over 1.2 inches. As the monsoonal disturbance has rotated across Colorado, IPW has climbed at the other three of the normal reporting stations (Boulder, Pueblo, and Shriever AFB), as well. Moisture is definitely out there.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, that amount of water is not coupled with proper timing of the mid-level trough<\/span> currently moving across the Central\/Northern Rockies. The trough<\/span> axis sits roughly along the Continental Divide<\/span> at this time, with the best forcing for showers\/thunderstorms already across Eastern Colorado. The trough<\/span>\/associated forcing will continue to push east, targeting central NE\/KS and points further east for stronger thunderstorms this afternoon\/evening. Behind that trough<\/span> is a weakly subsident airmass, designed to try and suppress strong convection<\/span>. This will limit what storms can do along and north of I-70, with a more neutral environment south of I-70.<\/p>\n

\"IPW_08272015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The best opportunity for storms will be over the higher terrain, favoring the Continental Divide<\/span> and mountains to the east, near the mountains along the Urban Corridor and western extents of the Northeast\/Southeast Plains, and wherever sunshine can produce enough daytime heating to break the cap<\/span> across the Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge. Rain rates are not expected to be great enough to warrant a flood threat, but street\/field ponding are expected under isolated<\/span>, stronger thunderstorms. For more information on timing and rain rates, please jump below the map for zone-specific discussions.<\/p>\n

Today’s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.<\/p>\n