{"id":17389,"date":"2022-06-05T09:26:12","date_gmt":"2022-06-05T15:26:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=17389"},"modified":"2022-06-05T09:48:27","modified_gmt":"2022-06-05T15:48:27","slug":"%ef%bf%bcftb-06-05-2022-isolated-storms-forecast-for-the-northern-high-terrains-eastern-plains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=17389","title":{"rendered":"FTB 06-05-2022: Isolated Storms Forecast For The Northern High Terrains &#038; Eastern Plains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Sunday, June 5th, 2022<br>\nIssue Time: 9:25AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash;<\/em><em> &nbsp;Flooding is&nbsp;<\/em><strong><em>NOT&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><em>expected today<\/em><\/p>\n<p>A quieter weather day is on tap as a weak ridge begins to build overhead. There are currently some ongoing light showers and cloud cover over the eastern plains associated with a departing <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> (orange &ldquo;X&rdquo;, north). These should begin to wind down anytime now as the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> moves east with the westerly flow aloft. Out west, <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> has risen to 0.53 inches at Grand Junction, which is helping produce the mid and upper-level clouds seen in the visible satellite imagery below. Still present in the sounding is a very dry surface layer, which means the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms that develop this afternoon with upslope flow and some weak mid-level energy (north of I-70) will likely produce more brief wind\/<span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;virga&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Wisps or streaks of precipitation falling out of a cloud that evaporate before reaching the surface. Virga can cause strong, but short-lived, localized winds (dry microburst).&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>virga<\/span> than meaningful rainfall. Nonetheless, it&rsquo;s good to have a break from <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;critical fire weather&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;weather conditions especially conducive to the formation of wildfires; typically strong winds, low relative humidity, and atmospheric instability&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>critical fire weather<\/span> conditions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/vis_20220605.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-17390\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/vis_20220605-300x194.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/vis_20220605-300x194.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/vis_20220605-1024x663.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/vis_20220605-768x497.png 768w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/vis_20220605.png 1322w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> at Denver was measure at 0.54 inches with a similar moisture profile to Grand Junction. One small difference was that there was a little bit better moisture measured in the <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;boundary layer&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&amp;lt;!-- wp:paragraph {&amp;quot;textColor&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;white&amp;quot;} --&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;has-white-color has-text-color&amp;quot;&amp;gt;&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;\n&amp;lt;!-- \/wp:paragraph --&amp;gt;&amp;lt;br \/&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;span style=&amp;quot;color: #ffffff;&amp;quot;&amp;gt;The lower portion of the atmosphere that is directly influenced by the earth&amp;#039;s surface. Primarily, the boundary layer is driven by solar heating during the day and radiational cooling at night.&amp;lt;\/span&amp;gt;&amp;lt;\/p&amp;gt;&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>boundary layer<\/span>. This remaining moisture is expected to mix out from west to east through this afternoon as another surface Low develops over the Northeast Plains. This means that <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span>, weak storms that do develop with the residual moisture over the Front Range and push into the Urban Corridor should produce only limited rainfall. Gusty <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds will likely attend the storms as well.<\/p>\n<p>An area of stronger storms is anticipated to develop over the eastern plains along a dry line this afternoon. It is likely that the dry line sets up just west of the eastern Colorado border, which should constrain the areal impact of the storms. That also means that the richer surface moisture is likely to be located east of our border, limiting the heavy rainfall potential. Additionally, the storms are forecast to move at 25-30 mph, so between these two factors, rain rates are expected to remain under flood threat criteria. Therefore, flooding is NOT expected today.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-13436 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/FTB_NoThreat_2022_light.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"573\"\/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>Northeast Plains &amp; Southeast Plains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Stronger storms will develop this afternoon along a dry line as some mid-level energy moves through the flow to help kick the storms off. It is possible that the dry line sets up just east of the state, leaving the border counties rainless. There is less of a severe threat today, and if thunderstorms fire over the eastern border counties, they should quickly move to the east. Max 1-hour rain rates up to 1 inch along with small hail and gusty <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds will be possible under the stronger storms. Flooding is NOT expected.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 2:30PM to 7PM<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Front Range, Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, Northwest Slope, Urban Corridor &amp; Palmer Ridge:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>Isolated<\/span> storms are forecast to develop mostly north of I-70 today into tonight. A second round of rainfall and cloud cover is likely over the Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Over the Northwest Slope, only light rainfall is expected today with more notable totals by morning (up to 0.15 inches). Over the Front Range, Northern Mountains and Urban Corridor&nbsp;30-minute rain rates up to 0.20 inches are possible. Flooding is NOT forecast.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 2PM to Ongoing<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, San Luis Valley, Southwest Slope, Grand Valley &amp; San Juan Mountains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Rainfall is not anticipated over these zones today, so flooding is NOT expected. Afternoon high temperatures should reach into the upper 80Fs across the lower elevations and Raton Ridge, 80F for the SLV and 70Fs for the mountain valleys.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Sunday, June 5th, 2022 Issue Time: 9:25AM MDT &mdash; &nbsp;Flooding is&nbsp;NOT&nbsp;expected today A quieter weather day is on tap as a weak ridge begins to build overhead. There are currently some ongoing light showers and cloud cover over the eastern plains associated with a departing <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> (orange &ldquo;X&rdquo;, north). These should begin to [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17389"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17389"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17389\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17393,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17389\/revisions\/17393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}