{"id":16805,"date":"2022-05-15T08:44:54","date_gmt":"2022-05-15T14:44:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coloradofloodthreat.com\/?p=16805"},"modified":"2022-05-15T08:44:55","modified_gmt":"2022-05-15T14:44:55","slug":"ftb-05-15-2022-isolated-high-based-storms-but-otherwise-quiet-weather-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/?p=16805","title":{"rendered":"FTB 05-15-2022: Isolated High-Based Storms, But Otherwise Quiet Weather Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Sunday, May 15th, 2022<br>Issue Time: 8:45AM MDT<\/p>\n<p><em>&mdash;<\/em><em> Flooding is&nbsp;<\/em><strong><em>NOT&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><em>expected today<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Plenty of sunshine and more heat are forecast to round out this mid-May weekend. Today, the ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern with the axis sliding east. This will help to produce those warmer temperatures, but also calm the winds. There was a weak cool front that slid through eastern Colorado associated with the departing <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;shortwave&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>shortwave<\/span> from yesterday. Currently, there are some decent northerly wind gusts over the far eastern plains being produced with a second push of this cooler air, but these should begin to settle by late morning. This cool front will help to keep high temperatures only slightly cooler over the northeast portion of the state.<\/p>\n<p>As far as moisture, there was some weak moisture return behind this feature, and <span class=\"glossaryLink\"  aria-describedby=\"tt\"  data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;PW&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;(Stands for: Precipitable Water) The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. It is typically measured in inches, and anomalously (deviation from normal) high values of precipitable water generally correlate to heavy rainfall potential.&lt;\/div&gt;\"  data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>PW<\/span> at Denver and Grand Junction has jumped up to 0.39 inches. This should be just enough moisture help kick off <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms over the southern Front Range and Southeast Mountains as well as the elevated Palmer and Raton Ridges as the diurnal upslope flow pattern sets up by this afternoon. Unfortunately, soundings show this moisture in the mid and upper levels. With the dry surface layer remaining intact, there is a better chance for <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;virga&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Wisps or streaks of precipitation falling out of a cloud that evaporate before reaching the surface. Virga can cause strong, but short-lived, localized winds (dry microburst).&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>virga<\/span> and brief <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds versus meaningful rainfall accumulation from these storms. So, there is NO flood threat issued. Not all bad news, this slight increase in moisture, paired with less wind, will help to damper the fire danger.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-16806\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vis_20220515.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vis_20220515.png 1406w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vis_20220515-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vis_20220515-1024x644.png 1024w, https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vis_20220515-768x483.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\"\/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Today&rsquo;s Flood Threat Map<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For more information on today&rsquo;s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-13436 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/FTB_NoThreat_2022_light.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"573\"\/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zone-Specific Forecasts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h4><strong>San Juan Mountains, Front Range, Southeast Mountains, San Luis Valley, Raton Ridge &amp; Palmer Ridge: <\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>High-based, <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span> storms will be possible today over the southern Front Range, Southeast Mountains, eastern San Juan Mountains as well as the ridges. More <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;virga&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Wisps or streaks of precipitation falling out of a cloud that evaporate before reaching the surface. Virga can cause strong, but short-lived, localized winds (dry microburst).&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>virga<\/span> than meaningful rainfall is forecast due to the dry surface layer. That means that the storms that do develop may produce some brief <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;outflow&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A cool pool of air that results when a thunderstorm downdraft reaches the surface and spreads horizontally.&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>outflow<\/span> winds. Max totals up to 0.15 inches may be possible with most storms producing under 0.05 inches. Flooding is NOT expected.<\/p>\n<p>Primetime: 11AM to 6:30PM<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Central Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains &amp; Urban Corridor:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Temperatures will be on the rise with slightly cooler temperatures forecast over the northeast corner. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80Fs over the lower elevations east and west, and 80Fs are forecast for the SLV, Urban Corridor and Northeast Plains. Mountain valleys should reach into the 70Fs. There is an outside chance that some very <span class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemTitle&gt;isolated&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;less than 10% areal coverage&lt;\/div&gt;\" data-gt-translate-attributes='[{\"attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\", \"format\":\"html\"}]'>isolated<\/span>, high-based storms develop over the Northwest Slope, but they will likely only produce cloud cover and maybe a few sprinkles.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Issue Date: Sunday, May 15th, 2022Issue Time: 8:45AM MDT &mdash; Flooding is&nbsp;NOT&nbsp;expected today Plenty of sunshine and more heat are forecast to round out this mid-May weekend. Today, the ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern with the axis sliding east. This will help to produce those warmer temperatures, but also calm the winds. [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16805"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16805"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16805\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16809,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16805\/revisions\/16809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive-coftb.dewberryanalytics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}