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<\/a><\/p>\nNote: This is the final Flood Threat Outlook of the 2021 forecast season. The program is scheduled to return on May 1, 2022. It has been a pleasure to serve the state of Colorado!<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Fall-like weather has finally overtaken most of Colorado after a seemingly endless Indian Summer. Denver will very likely finish the season with 59 days above 90F, or the fifth highest total since records began in the 1870s. Pueblo looks to finish with 85, also the fifth highest total since records started around 1890. Across the Continental Divide<\/span>, Grand Junction will likely finish with 78 days above 90F, or tied for the ninth highest total since records began in the 1890s. Below, we see that, in consistency with the 90 degree day counts and our perception, summer has been very warm with the entire state running above average. Large parts of the state have seen temperatures of 2F or more above normal over a 120-day stretch, certainly a noteworthy signal of heat.<\/p>\n If we zoom out a bit, okay perhaps more than a bit, to the entire planet, below we see anomalies of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) since early July (roughly the start of monsoon<\/span> season). Positive anomalies essentially imply “sunnier” than normal conditions where the atmosphere is emitting more radiation than normal, to space. Negative values imply the opposite, and generally coincide with more cloudy conditions. We can see that most of the western United States saw above normal OLR, with the very small sliver of negative values over the Gulf of California representing the significantly above normal monsoon<\/span> over parts of AZ and NM.<\/p>\n When we consider the observations above, it is perhaps a bit surprising that our wildfire activity was not as active as in previous years. Below, we see that higher-elevation burn acreage in 2021 will (likely) end up much below the normal value of the past two decades. However, keep in mind that this “average” includes some extraordinary years such as 2020 and 2018, so there is a case to be made that 2021 was still likely above the longer-term normal value (i.e. if we extend the record back before 2000; however, data quality becomes more suspect). Regardless, we are not complaining!<\/p>\n Now let’s shift the focus back to the Outlook, the final one of the 2021 season. As seen in the water vapor imagery below, we are currently experiencing an active weather pattern with a disturbance traversing the state. This disturbance will cause rain and snow across mainly southern Colorado through Saturday (Event #1). Although a few weaker thunderstorms are possible, only short-term moderate intensity rainfall is expected and there is No Apparent Flood Threat. Instead the San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge and Southeast Plains will experience very welcomed, widespread<\/span> precipitation.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n